Wholesale electricity prices will rise again in Europe in winter, especially in the UK, Germany and France, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In a report published this Wednesday, the IEA analyzes the First consequences of the Ukraine war for Europe due to strong Russia’s energy dependencywhich supplied, in 2020, almost 30% of the gas consumed in Europe, in addition to more than 20% of the oil and 12% of the coal.
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Given a base index of 100 points, at the beginning of 2016, prices in France and Germany are already 10 times greater (1000 points).
climbing will speed up in winterprecisely when there are fears of supply problems or a new rise in the price of gas, if it is confirmed that Russia will close the taps to Europe.
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The study authors predict that prices in France triple until the end of the year (at 3,000 points), while in Germany they can almost double to about 1,750 points.
By 2023, forecasts point to a fall in both countries, in the first part of the year, going back to the price in the second half and finishing with about 1,500 points, that is, fifteen times the price they had at the beginning of 2016.
As for the UK, the report predicts that will pass the current 500 to around 1,250 in the fourth quarter before falling below the 750 threshold in the second half of next year.
The IEA forecasts that global electricity demand, which rose 6% in 2021, largely in reaction to lockdowns during the pandemic, will grow 2.4% this year and at a similar rate in 2023, at a similar rate to the intermediate period. 2015 and 2019, but lower than expected at the beginning of the year.
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The report notes that the Europe will be the region in the world with the lowest rate of growth in electricity demand in 2022 (below 1%).
Electricity consumption in the American continent will increase by almost 2% this year, a higher projection than that made in January and which is mainly explained by the rapid economic recovery of the United States.
Source: Observadora
