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AD believes that PS will not have the courage to fail OE

The first one to blink loses. And Luís Montenegro believes he has all the advantage on his side. After European elections that have given important navigation signals, and on the eve of the start of the discussion of the next state budget for 2025, the social democrats believe that the Government has already disarmed the political crisis that was looming on the horizon. The hard core of the Executive trusts that Pedro Nuno Santos, despite the ambiguity that he maintains in public, will not have the “courage” to disapprove of the Budgets. Ultimately, even if he does so and provokes early elections, they point out, the result will be favorable: the Democratic Alliance will win new legislative elections and grow at the polls. And the socialist also knows it, he adds.

The early election scenario is not one that, at least for now, the Montenegro team is working on. “Pedro Nuno Santos is not enough crazy for this,” argues a member of Luís Montenegro’s hard core. “It is one thing to give shots in the air, another thing is to take a real photo. Pedro Nuno Santos will not do it,” adds another. “He went away rational, you will know that you cannot overthrow the Government. There is no indicator that indicates the prospect of having a left majority. You cannot overthrow a minority government to form another, more fragile minority government. Only U.S we would grow”says a government official.

And this is an important nuance. As would be predictable, in official and unofficial discourse no one assumes the desire vote again. “For our part, we have responsibility of the opposition parties is the same as that of the Government. Everyone understands that the country does not want elections, everyone understands that the country needs State Budgets and everyone now realizes that the political framework will not disappear alter A lot with the new elections,” a prominent social democratic leader assures the Observer. But – and here comes the ‘but’ that continues to haunt the minds of those closest to Montenegro – if there are elections, the Democratic Alliance would call it a fig.

“We had everything to reinforce the vote,” says the same source. “I would be better What could happen to us? But, naturally, it was bad for the country,” adds another source. In essence, the social democrats believe that, after a certainly unstable start, the Government has gained initiative and is gain the battle in public opinion. From there to winning again (and by more) some legislative elections, it would be a step, especially because, according to Portuguese political tradition, any incumbent is a favorite in the elections and any party that causes a crisis is penalized, two factors that double Montenegro’s chances in the event of early elections.

TO legislative fury —The Executive has presented a plan practically every week, this Thursday it was against corruption—it is being used to give an air of maker Montenegro, which maintains the strategy it chose for this new cycle: expose itself little, talk almost exclusively about the Government’s initiatives and nothing about the controversies of the day, and centralize communication a lot, ending up at the head of the media of the entire Executive . initiatives. All of this designed to feed the narrative that he is committed to solving the country’s problems, and fast.

“We are very optimistic. We have found the rhythm and we are clearly exceed The expectations. And we are not going to stop,” a source from the Executive summarizes to the Observer. In line with what he told Expresso, even during the European Championship, a challenge António Leitão Amaro, Minister of the Presidency. “Whoever thinks that the Government is governing with great intensity and with a great reformist spirit, expect more to come,” the president promised in interview to the express.

At the same time, and despite the small achievements that are being added up in Parliament, the social democratic team is convinced that Pedro Nuno Santos cannot find a solid narrative enough to participate in short-term elections. “There are some disorientation on the PS side and that helps us, of course. As soon as they accuse us of doing nothing, now they say we are doing a lot. They have not found the record yet,” a member of the group closest to Montenegro tells the Observer.

Pedro Nuno and Ventura in the prisoner’s dilemma

For all these reasons, social democrats believe that, in essence, the crisis scenario is over. Unless things go beyond the realm of rationality, this is granted among social democrats. “Pedro Nuno Santos and André Ventura are in the dilemma of prisoner. None of them really want to overthrow the Government, but none of them want to have the burden of stopping it. “Things can become very unpredictable,” admits the same source. The thesis is relatively simple: the two, Pedro Nuño and Ventura, can stretch the rope so much, threaten the leadership of the State Budget so much, that both will be left with no room for retreat. “It will be very unpredictable,” summarizes a prominent PSD leader.

Strictly speaking, the social democrats do not deposit great faith In André Ventura. Even after the match’s scare at the European Championship, few believe that Chega will become a reliable and responsible ally in the eyes of the Democratic Alliance. Ultimately, it may not lead to a political crisis, but the Government’s path to approving the State Budget does not go through Ventura. Or better yet: there is a firm conviction that it cannot depend solely on Ventura. Convincing Pedro Nuno Santos, who only needs to abstain in the Budget vote, is the task the easiest way to avoid a political crisis.

And the road may have just gotten easier. In some way, there are those, in the PSD and in the Government, who believe that the European elections deflated the balloon by Pedro Nuno because they gave the best possible results. On the one hand, it was clear that the political majority in the country has changed, that the left is at an Olympic minimum and that Pedro Nuno Santos, even if in theory he managed to win some legislative elections, would not have conditions govern.

At the same time, the victory, despite being tangential, allows Pedro Nuno to comfort the party and maintain its leadership without falling into despair. You have the PS in your hands and you can afford to take your time. “He may become more vocal from now on, but he will always be inconsistent. The result allows you to please. apparatus socialists and not raise more waves,” highlights a member of the Executive. “Of course we wanted to win the European Championship. But it would be worse. The victory calmed down Pedro Nuno Santos, who is no longer under pressure,” agrees another member of the Executive.

All this works on paper, but the truth is that the two blocks seem increasingly distant. Furthermore, as explained here the observer, the socialists distrust “that Luís Montenegro really wants to provoke early elections and that he is committed to declaring”war on parliament“. The warnings to the Government are repeated and coincide perfectly with what Pedro Nuno Santos said during the European campaign: “If the Government wants endure “You have to have the right policies and the right attitude in your relationship with the opposition and with Parliament.”

Publicly, Luís Montenegro has tried to boil water. On June 10, a day after losing the Euro Cup, the social democrat promised a redoubled commitment to reach consensus, recognized that there are points of contact with the PS and guaranteed that the Government will fulfill its role. “In fact, everyone talks a lot about dialogue, but each one has to make a decision. effort to approximate positions. Let’s try to do it.”

Negative coalitions in the EO can precipitate the exit

Despite Luís Montenegro’s public statements, at the first shot of the PS, in the so-called accusation that the Government had opened war on Parliament, the PSD immediately responded with a bazooka. “The PS is trying to rewrite the history of the last 60 days. Cover yourself with ridiculous and his feet are not on the ground. It is almost the same as saying that it was Ukraine that invaded Russia,” reacted Hugo Soares, parliamentary leader of the PSD. Not exactly a good calling card for anyone who thinks the two sides can still understand each other.

To the exchange of pennants between social democrats and socialists, to which is added an attitude apparently still more hostile of Ventura after the Europeans (see the debate on immigration), added to the desire that the Executive no longer hides to take advantage of the next State Budgets to back or ignore much of what PS and Chega managed to approve together, something that, if confirmed in these terms, would be a affront clear for the only two parties that can save the Budgets.

If it really commits to approving the document, the Government will have to find a way to seduce one of the possible partners. This Sunday, in his usual comments space in the SIC, Luís Marques Mendes, advised Montenegro to have a prudent and proactive attitude if he does not want to take risks. “The best thing is to negotiate the State Budget previouslyalready in September, as António Guterres used to do, and the privileged partner must be the PS,” suggested the State Councilor and former social democratic leader.

This thesis still does not have many supporters. “It seems like an idea to me. unreasonable, but nothing has been decided yet,” a member of the Executive tells the Observer. Publicly, Luís Montenegro took advantage of a interview to the new television channel, Now, to promise to listen to all sides. But he did not go as far as Marques Mendes asked him to. “[Vamos convidar] all political forces to make their contribution to the State Budget,” the Prime Minister limited himself to saying, without explaining how and to what depth this dialogue can materialize.

Despite everything, in the Government no one ignores that this budget process could lead to political chaos, as Luís Marques Mendes himself warned. Although the PS and Chega even allow the state budget to be approved in general, the two parties can perfectly disfigure the document by cross-voting in the specialty discussion, forcing Montenegro to execute a Budget that is not its own, which would be politically unsustainable for the Democratic Alliance.

For now, no one is committed to achieving a result if this alternative scenario is confirmed. Will Montenegro remain in office or precipitate new elections? “If the Budget is done in patches, we have to see what we do at the time. But yes, it may not be. sustainable continue,” threatens a government official. There are several steps to go until then, but all the movements of Pedro Nuno Santos and André Ventura are being carefully studied.

The PS accuses the Government of preparing a “war against Parliament” and suspects that Montenegro wants elections

Source: Observadora

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