Experts have long suspected that it had reached the limit of human life span, and thought that no one could beat the record of Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who reportedly died at the age of 122 in 1997.
But a new study concludes that we are still “far away” from any upper limit on lifespan, if it actually exists.
In a paper published Wednesday in the journal PLOS One, David McCarthy, a professor of risk management at the University of Georgia, estimates that people, especially women, could exceed the age of 122 in the next few years. decade.
In Japan, for example, mathematical calculations show that women born in 1940 can reach a maximum age between 125 and 130. In the United States, the maximum age can be between 120 and 125, i.e. say, today’s eighties may live in 2065.
Taken together, these mathematical models show that our maximum lifespan is not biologically stable, but rather increasing, at least for now, McCarthy said.
The University of Georgia team analyzed the ages of people born in the UK since 1880 to see what the future holds.
Their estimates show that men born in 1970 could reach 141, while older women born in 1970 could reach 131.
The authors say they are “not confident” in these estimates, warning that they may be inaccurate because they are based on certain statistical assumptions.
They are more than confident that a man born in 1940 can reach his 125th birthday, and a woman born in the same year can reach 124½.
The probability that these predictions are correct is 50%.
While some experts question it, it is believed that the oldest person in the world to date is Madame Calment, who reached 122 years and 164 days.
25 years ago, no one in the world reached that age.
The study examines life expectancy in 19 different countries. The results show that the age at which people die will increase significantly in the coming years.
In Sweden, which has the most data, the maximum age a person can live has remained the same for men born in 1900 compared to those born in 1780 four generations ago.
However, II. The advent of modern medicine after World War II, better nutrition and political stability, among other factors, may have contributed to the dramatic increase in life expectancy seen today and projected will continue.
The oldest people born between 1910 and 1950 could live to 120 years or more, the authors said.
“As these cohorts reach advanced age in the coming years, longevity records may rise dramatically. Our results confirm previous studies that suggest there is an upper limit to human longevity,” said Dr David McCarthy, of the University of Georgia, who led the study. We did not approach him.”
Source: Daily Mail
Source: Arabic RT
