Humans are abandoning coal use too slowly to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the international climate change agreement aimed at tackling global warming, according to a new study.
The goal of the Paris agreement is to “continue efforts” to limit the increase in the world’s average temperature “to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels” and to keep the increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Considering that humans currently emit about 15 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, and that coal makes up about 40% of those emissions, phase-out coal is a great way to do it. Once carbon dioxide gets there, it can linger for centuries, trapping the sun’s heat and changing climates around the world.
Many countries are planning to phase out coal, or at least use less coal, as part of their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This development is a big step from the state of international climate negotiations before the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015.
But researchers say we’re moving in the right direction at the wrong speed.
The authors of the new study report write: At our current rate of coal phase-out, we are on track to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 2° limit for maximum global warming. They warn that we are headed for warming of 2.5 or 3 degrees without major changes.
This is not the first time researchers have made this prediction.
“There are a growing number of countries that are committing to removing coal from their energy systems, which is positive,” said study co-author and environmental scientist Aleh Scherb of Lund University in Sweden.
“But unfortunately its promises are not strong enough. If we have a realistic chance of reaching the 2 degree target, coal exits must be accelerated and other fossil fuel-dependent countries must increase transition rates.”
To reach this conclusion, the researchers analyzed the plans of 72 countries that have committed to phase out coal by 2050. The good news is that a 2°C increase in temperature is still avoidable. But only in the best-case scenario, China and India will run out of coal within five years, the researchers say.
However, they added, warming would still be well below 2 degrees if China and India implement ambitious plans, even matching the UK’s current reduction rate and exceeding the reductions promised by Germany. .
According to other scenarios that researchers describe as more realistic, Earth is headed for global warming of between 2.5 and 3 degrees.
While the 2021 report found The Gambia to be the only country currently on track, dozens of countries have failed to meet their commitments under the Paris accord.
Climate change is already wreaking havoc before temperatures rise by 2 degrees, but scientists expect worse as we approach that line.
This warming is unprecedented in human history, but Earth’s long experience with similar warm periods gives us some clues as to what to expect.
For example, while the loss of Antarctic ice could raise sea levels by 20 meters, people around the world could face decreased food security and increased risk of Disease, as well as extreme disasters from heatwaves and extreme droughts to superstorms and freezing floods. .
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy and the growing taboo for coal-fired power plants, coal has proven difficult to phase out.
According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption rose 1.2% in 2022 after falling 3.1% in 2020, bringing annual global coal use to more than 8 billion metric tons for the first time. . .
Global carbon dioxide emissions also continue to rise, rising from pandemic-related lows in 2020 to new highs in 2021 and 2022. According to the International Energy Agency, carbon dioxide emissions from coal increased by 1.6% in 2022, and coal remains the main cause of the increase in total carbon dioxide emissions.
The study was published in IOPscience.
Source: ScienceAlert
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