The latest estimates predict an unfavourable scenario for Bardella’s party, with the New Popular Front very close to obtaining the same result. Abstention may be higher than in the first round.
The three latest forecasts for the French legislative elections, published on Friday, give victory to the far-right National Union (RN), but rule out the possibility of an absolute majority for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party.
With at least 289 parliamentary seats needed to achieve an absolute majority in France, the three polls for the second round of elections, which will take place next Sunday, point to a range of between 170 and 230 deputies for the RN.
Furthermore, site projections suggest that The New Popular Front (NFP), made up of left-wing and far-left parties, could be very close to the far right.
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The survey by the French Institute for Opinion and Marketing Studies (IFOP) assigns between 170 and 210 seats to the RN and between 155 and 185 to the NFP, to which must be added the 10 and 18 independent deputies of the left.
The “Macronist” bloc, Juntos, would have between 120 and 150 seats, while the conservative Republican Party (LR) would get between 50 and 65, with the remaining five to 15 going to the regionalists or other independents, according to the poll conducted for Le Figaro and Sud Radio.
The electoral institute Elabe expects RN to win between 200 and 230 seats, while the entire left (NFP and independents) will win between 165 and 190.
France. Poll places the National Union in the lead in voting intentions
Together they would get between 120 and 140 seats, while LR would get between 35 and 50, with 10 to 12 for independents and regionalists, according to the Elabe survey for the BFM channel and the daily La Tribune.
The far-right Le Pen party would win between 175 and 205 seats, according to the third survey, conducted by Ipsos for state-run Radiotelevisión.
The NFP would get between 145 and 175 seats, with another 14 to 16 for left-wing independents. Together they would have a total of between 118 and 148 and the Republicans would remain stable at 57-67. Another 14-20 seats would be allocated to other independents and regionalists.
Toward Three surveys predict a high turnout rate, between 64% and 70%In the first round last weekend, the participation rate was 66.7%.
In the previous legislative elections in 2022, voter turnout was 47.51% in the first round and 46.23% in the second round.
Source: Observadora
