Harris now has 51% of voting intentions compared to Donald Trump’s 45%, in a sample of 10,000 voters with a “very low” margin of error. It is the largest difference since the beginning of the electoral cycle.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris widened her lead over Donald Trump to six points after the US presidential debate, achieving the largest gap in Morning Consult polls since the start of the election cycle.
“It’s a record since we started tracking in November 2022,” analyst Eli Yokley said in a Morning Consult session on the state of the presidential race. Harris now has 51% of voting intentions compared to Donald Trump’s 45%in a sample of 10 thousand voters with a “very low” margin of error.
The media attention that followed the debate allowed Kamala Harris to significantly improve her popularity among the electorate. The candidate went from one to seven points in the balance of favorabilitywhile Donald Trump remained at ten negative points.
“Our most recent poll shows that about half of voters heard something positive about Harris after the debate,” said Eli Yokley, noting that the The current rumors are positive for the Democrat. (+18) and negative for the Republican (-22).
The analyst stressed that “this is the best environment for Democrats” since November 2022, when the presidential election cycle began, following the midterm elections.
Others Post-debate polls confirm a favorable scenario for the DemocratsThe algorithm of the aggregator platform FiveThirtyEight has Kamala Harris as the favorite to win (64 out of 100) and the new Quinnipiac poll shows the Democrat ahead by 5 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with one point more than Trump in Wisconsin.
According to Morning Consult analysis, the The economy is the most important issue.with Harris nearly tied with Trump in voter perception, something Biden was far behind in before dropping out of the race.
Analyst Sofia Baig explained that the Voters “trust Harris more”especially on the issues of economic equality, affordable housing, and childcare costs.
“Undecided voters slightly favor the policies proposed by the Harris campaign,” Baig also noted, noting that a large part of the electorate has heard the economic plans and can identify which candidate they associate with. The imposition of customs duties, for example, is associated with Trump and is viewed negatively (-2), while legislation to prevent excessive price increases is associated with Harris with a very positive view (+56).
Compared to 2020, Harris is making up ground thanks to Joe Biden’s performance four years ago. At this point in the race, Biden had an eight-point lead over Trump, while Harris now has six.
The big difference, said analyst Cameron Easley, is that Donald Trump improved his numbers:Biden led 51% to 43% in 2020 and now Harris leads 51% to 45%.
“We are registering More support for Trump now than in 2020“Easley said, noting that voters tend to see him as less extreme than Harris in political ideology.
This is Harris’s “number one weakness” among independent voters, where the Democrat is behind what Biden achieved. The candidate also has less support than Biden among young, black and Hispanic voters. Easley found that Trump’s support among conservative black voters rose by double digits, from 25% to 35%.
Without a second presidential debate, attention will now focus on the face to face between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance, which will take place October 1st in New York.
Source: Observadora
