The expert, Ahmed Al-Sayed Al-Najjar, noted that “the global status of the dollar is declining and there is no comfort for those who worship its sanctuary,” noting that some have condemned the talk about the dollar’s collapse. . status of international currency reserves.
The economist said in an interview with RT that “some condemn the discourse on the collapse of the dollar as an international reserve currency, and predict it from the movement of its prices in money markets in short-term speculation or from in its position in Egypt, where the pound has been in a historically declining position for nearly half a century against the dollar and all major free currencies as a result of large and ongoing trade balance deficits and imbalances on the current account most of that time.
The expert added: “And since the complaint has nothing to do with science or the study of the long-term trend of the dollar price and its participation in world reserves, let us note this based on data from the IFS report released by International Monetary Fund: in 1966 the dollar was equal to 362 Japanese yen, and in 1976 it fell to 296. It fell to 168 yen in 1986, fell to 109 yen in 1996, and in a few trading days it dropped to 80 yen .
With the rise of China and many countries in Asia and the decline of Japanese trade surpluses to the point of almost total collapse, and the very low growth rate of Japan’s economy, averaging 0.7% per year during the period from 2004 to 2013, and fell to less than 0.3% per year on average in the period from 2014 to 2021. Japan has been worse off than the United States in the economic slowdown, so the dollar has risen against the yen, but is currently at that level 120-130 yen. about a third of its price in 1966.
He added: “The historic trend of the dollar to the yen means a sharp decline. The dollar was equivalent to 4 Deutschmarks in 1966, then fell to 2.5 marks in 1976, fell to 2.2 marks in 1986, and fell to 1.5 marks in 1996, before that The mark entered the single European currency (the euro ) and the dollar fell from 4.4 Swiss francs in 1966, to 2.5 francs in 1976, and fell to 1.8 francs in 1986, and it dropped to less than 1.3 Swiss francs in 1996, and is currently less than 1.3 Swiss francs, or more accurately 0.97 Swiss francs.
He stressed that despite the importance of the dollar’s movement against major currencies, its participation in the international reserves of some countries in the world is paramount. An International Monetary Fund study indicates that the share of the dollar in the reserve basket of central banks around the world has fallen from 71% in 1999 to 59% in the fourth quarter of 2020. This share has already fallen. now in less than 48% of central bank reserves for all countries in the world. This decline is natural and consistent with the decline in the global position of the US economy, whose output constituted approximately 45% of the total global gross at the end of World War II when the economies of Europe, Japan, the former Union Soviet, and China were nearly destroyed, and that share gradually dropped to approximately 25.8% of the world total. 1997.
It fell to approximately 23.2% of the world’s total in 2015, and currently shifts to nearly one-fifth of the world’s total when measured in dollars at prevailing exchange rates, and less than 19% of world production today when measured . measured in dollars. according to the parity of purchasing power. On the other hand, China’s gross domestic product accounted for approximately 3.5 percent of the world total in 1997. That share rose to 14 percent of world output in 2015, and hovered at the level of 17 percent of the total. current world if production is measured in dollars at the prevailing exchange rate, and around the level of 23% of the total world purchasing power parity.
For U.S. exports, they accounted for nearly one-third of world exports by the end of World War II, which dropped to 8.4% of the world total by 2020, according to the World Trade Statistics Report. released by the World Trade Organization (2021), with a large U.S. trade balance deficit continuous for five years. On the other hand, China’s share of exports increased, and the expected exclusion of dollar reserves from Russian Central Bank reserves following fraudulent measures taken by the US empire to seize dollar assets from that bank, the dollar The share of The central bank reserves are likely to decline, especially as Russia tends to trade in the ruble. China is also expanding its trade relations with many of its partners in Asia, specifically in local currencies on both sides. .
Source: RT
Source: Arabic RT
