The coincident indicator of economic activity presented in June a rate “Following” of the previous months, while the coincident indicator of private consumption fell again, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) reported on Thursday.
“In June, the coincident monthly indicator of economic activity showed a rhythm close to that observed in recent months. The coincident indicator rate for private consumption declined again,” the central bank said in a statement.
In June, the year-on-year change rate for the economic activity indicator was 7.1% (4.1% in June 2021), slightly decreasing from 7.2% in May, while the year-on-year change for the indicator for the private consumption decreased from 4.8% in May to 3.9% in June (6.2% in June 2021).
Considering the quarter ended in June, the interannual variation rates of the indicators of economic activity and private consumption were 7.1% and 4.8%, respectively, compared to 7.2% and 5.5%, in the same order, of the ended quarter. In May.
Since the beginning of the year, the average variation rate of the monthly coincident indicator of economic activity is 7.1%, while that of the monthly coincident indicator of private consumption is 5.7% (in the same period of 2021, the rate average variation of these indicators was 3.1% and 4.6%, respectively).
Coincident indicators are composite indicators that seek to capture the underlying evolution of variation of the respective macroeconomic aggregate, so they do not reflect at any time the interannual variation rate of the respective aggregate of National Accounts.
Pointing out that the incorporation of new information may be reflected monthly in the revision of the past values of the coincident indicators, the BoP warns that, “in the current situation, given the sudden and significant variations in the series used in the calculation of matching indicators, it is expected that there will be monthly revisions in these indicators higher than usual“.
“Additionally – he adds – the smoothed profile that underlies the methodology for calculating the indicators may imply monthly reviews with a different meaning over time”.
The next release of the BoP coincident indicators will be on August 18.
Also on this day, the BoP reported that, in the week ending July 17, the daily economic activity indicator (DEI), which shows the evolution of the Portuguese economy in near real time, points to a year-over-year change in activity higher to that of the previous week.
The DEI is an indicator launched by the BoP to identify sudden changes in economic activity, but it is not an official forecast by the Bank of Portugal or the Eurosystem.
Source: Observadora
