The coincident indicators of economic activity and private consumption slowed down again in October compared to the previous month, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) reported this Thursday.
“In October, coincident indicators of economic activity and private consumption returned to present a rate lower than that of the previous month“, says the central bank in a statement.
In October, the year-on-year change rate of the economic activity indicator was 5.4% (6.3% in October 2021), slowing down from 5.7% in September.
The interannual variation of the private consumption indicator decreased from 2.9% in September to 2.4% in October???????? In October 2021 it had been 7.7%.
Considering the quarter ended in October, the interannual variation rates of the indicators of economic activity and for private consumption were 5.7% and 2.9%respectively, which compares with 6.0% and 3.5%, in the same order, in the quarter ended in September.
Since the beginning of the year, the average exchange rate in the the coincident monthly indicator of economic activity is 6.6%, while that of the monthly coincident indicator of private consumption is 5.1% (in the same period of 2021, the average variation rate of these indicators was 3.5% and 4.9%, respectively).
The coincident indicators seek to capture the underlying evolution of the respective macroeconomic aggregate, therefore they do not reflect the interannual variation rate of said aggregate at each moment.
The BdP warns that, “in the current situation, given the sudden and significant variations in the series used in the calculation of the coincident indicators, it is expected that there will be monthly revisions in these indicators higher than usual”????????
“In addition -he adds- the smoothed profile that underlies the methodology for calculating the indicators may imply monthly revisions with a different meaning over time”.
The next publication of the BoP coincident indicators will take place on December 22.
Also today, the BdP reported that, in the week ending November 13, the daily economic activity indicator (DEI), which reflects the evolution of the Portuguese economy in near real time, points to a year-on-year rate of change in activity “lower than that observed in the previous week”.
The DEI is an indicator released by the BdP to identify sudden changes in economic activity, but it is not an official forecast by the Bank of Portugal or the Eurosystem.
Source: Observadora
