Rui Rio is past, Jorge Moreira da Silva was never present and the PSD has a new leader, new challenges and the need to deal with two emerging parties and one (almost) disappeared. On the right, however, the news of the election of Luís Montenegro was not received in the same way.

He is quite excited about the possibility of having a new ally; IL believes that the new leader of the PSD, above all, will harm Chega, and welcomes him; the CDS wants success, but is more concerned with returning to the Premier League on its own merits and rejecting any type of complicity that could be read as servility.

“Luis Montenegro is intelligentIt seems to me that you have not closed the door on us. He realized that there will be no right-wing government without Chega, ”Pedro Pinto, the party’s new parliamentary leader, begins by telling the Observer.

André Ventura and Montenegro have a common past: In 2018, when the now leader of Chega tried to create a movement to overthrow Rui Rio, he had the help of Montenegro for that purpose; the new president of the PSD disavowed him and Ventura ended up dissolving and creating a new party. This is how Chega was born, which began precisely as a movement within the PSD itself.

The leader of Chega tried to condition the electoral race of the PSD from the beginning. First, expressing without reservation that he preferred the victory of Montenegro. Then leaving a public challenge for the two to understand each other on an alternative to socialism, a challenge rejected by the new social democratic president.

Finally, on the Saturday the results were known, May 28, Ventura tried to hang on to Montenegro’s victory. “I congratulate Luís Montenegro for the electoral victory in the PSD. whatever the start of a new cycle where the PSD can join Chega in true opposition to the PS and the extreme left!” Ventura wrote on Twitter.

Pedro Pinto also recalls that Jorge Moreira da Silva, who chose as his campaign theme the rejection of any alliance with André Ventura, had one of the worst results always in internal elections of the social democrats. For the parliamentary leader of Chega, this PSD election is the full test that the Social Democrats, as a whole, realized the need to negotiate with Chega.

With the passing of the testimony, Ventura’s party believes that it is time for the new social democratic president to take a position strong position and far from what Rui Rio insisted on underlining in different contexts. “Luis Montenegro is a right hand man and we hope that the to assume”, insists Pedro Pinto, believing that this could be a first step to the right.

“Stop only opposing force to the Government, and that was seen in the State Budget, what we want is that Luís Montenegro join this opposition to the PS, to create a strong right that can be an alternative”, highlighted the general secretary of the party, who assumes the possibility of a government exit like the one found in the Azores.

Liberals bet on Montenegro to wear down Basta

In the Liberal Initiative, the election of Luís Montenegro is viewed with a certain detachment. For the Observer, a party source says that he considers “IrrelevantFor the liberals, the victory of the former parliamentary leader, as well as the victory of Jorge Moreira da Silva, would be irrelevant.

The thesis is based on the Pythagorean survey, by CNN and TVI, which practically revealed the same results regardless of whom the Social Democrats decided to lead. In this opinion poll, IL obtained 10.3% with Jorge Moreira da Silva as candidate for prime minister and 10% in the case of Luís Montenegro winning.

Furthermore, the Liberals believe that the PSD, whoever the leader, will not be able to stop the growth of the IL, even if the two parties compete for a share of the electorate. The liberal leader heard by the Observer stresses that joint work is not needed, but the awareness that the parties have “paths that are going to complementary so that they can both grow.”

In other words: there is a clear awareness that to defeat the PS it is necessary for both parties to grow and have stability, reaching different electoral segments. “Possibly, the PSD will be more efficient that the IL to win over the electorate that has voted for the PS, just as the IL will be much more effective in winning over other voters”, says the same Liberal Initiative source.

The programmatic and thoughtful proximity between PSD and IL keeps all doors open for future alliances. “Those who are in the opposition and say they are against the PS cannot help but look at others as future partners”, admits the leader of IL.

In the short term, however, the most important thing for IL is for the PSD to find its own way and choose its battles well. In recent months, the relationship between both parties has deteriorated, especially after the leadership of João Cotrim Figueiredo, motivated by the contribution of several Social Democratic deputies.

Liberals are hopeful that the new PSD leader can focus on the “right opponent”, the PS, and stop “looking too hard at the IL”. “I believe that Luís Montenegro will have the will and strategic thinkingyou have to have the strength to make the entire PSD think in the same way, to look much more at the PS as an opponent and not at the IL”, admits the same liberal leader.

However, in IL accounts, the election of Montenegro could result in a more important change than the mere adjustment of moods in the relationship between the two parties. The Liberals believe that if Luís Montenegro manages to make a strong opposition to the PS, it could be “more troublesome” for Chega, who will tend to lose the almost monopoly of the most vocal combat, a championship that João Cotrim Figueiredo’s party has no interest in disputing.

Satisfied CDS, but in its own way – it will not be “subordinate” to the PSD

The Christian Democrats are viewing this reconfiguration in the PSD in a less happy position than the two emerging parties. Outside the Assembly of the Republic, the CDS seeks to grow at its expense and regain a place in the highest political league. The election of Montenegro will help if it contributes to the growth of the space of the right and center-right, but by no means pinch the CDS.

“The important is that the PSD grows and the CDS grows so that, together, in the political space of the right, they can function as a real alternative to a left-wing dominance that is dragging on for a long time,” Nuno Melo told the Observer, from the European People’s Party (EPP) summit in Rotterdam. .

Telmo Correia, vice president of the party, agrees. Even acknowledging that “the CDS tends to have better results with the growth of the PSD”, the Christian Democrat understands that the party must aim to create its own path and a solid identity. “When CDS is displayed subordinate in relation to the PSD is usually on the way to a disaster.”

There is also something that unites Melo and Montenegro: both are outside Parliament. Telmo Correia believes that it may not be a disadvantage for both parties, which could make the fight political”very personalizedaround the figure of the two leaders, with characteristics that could be “very important” in the affirmation of the two political projects.

“I don’t think that Luís Montenegro has as a priority political combat to the CDS, much less now that the CDS needs to resurface and recover after a disastrous result”, predicts the former parliamentary leader of the Christian Democracy.

The cards are on the table, Luís Montenegro has just reached the top of the PSD that he so longed for, but the challenges also multiply in the relationship that he will have to build with partners that may or may not be the future of a social democratic government. .

The road is long, especially since the leader of the PSD will still have to go to internal votes before any possibility of becoming prime minister, but there are those who are willing to accuse him if he maintains the level of opposition that Rui Rio was accused of. . Although no proof is given, the new leader of the PSD is offered the benefit of the doubt, for how long nobody knows.