The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) uses the example of Portugal to predict which European countries may see an increase in Covid-19 cases due to the BA.4 and BA.5 strains of the Ómicron variant. .
The appearance of BA.4 and BA.5 in other European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries is expected to result in increases in Covid-19 cases, as has been observed in Portugal in recent months. ”, estimates the ECDC in a paper published today on public health and vaccination strategies for the second half of the year.
According to the EU agency, the magnitude of this increase in infections in each country will depend on several factors, such as the immunological protection already achieved against infection, vaccination coverage against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, and the extent of the pandemic. previous. waves.
In Portugal, the appearance and subsequent dominance of BA.5 occurred earlier than in other EU/EEA countries”, points out the ECDC, advancing that, after its appearance in early April, the growth in circulation of this Ómicron lineage was associated with an increase in the incidence of Covid-19 in all age groups, which peaked in early June.
According to the paper, although there is currently no evidence of any significant change in severity caused by BA.4 and BA.5 compared to previous strains, increased circulation of BA.5 was associated with increased hospitalizations and admissions in intensive care units (ICU) in Portugal.
The increases associated with hospitalizations and ICU admissions have been primarily driven by people aged 60 and over. The BA.4/BA.5 wave peaked in Portugal, which has seen a sharp downward trend in case rates among people aged 65 and older in the last five weeks.
Overall EU/EEA covid-19 case reporting rates remain high and have increased over the past five weeks, a relatively recent growth that “signals the start of a widespread wave driven by BA variants,” the document said. . 4 and BA.5”.
The European center also highlights that scientific evidence indicates that the efficacy of the vaccine against severe disease caused by Omicron remains high, even among older age groups, with protection of about 80% to 90% about two to three months after the first boosterbut that is reduced after three to six months.
“A second booster dose restores the effectiveness of the vaccine against serious diseaseswhich remains stable for up to 10 weeks, but longer follow-up times are not yet available,” says the ECDC.
At this stage of the pandemic, the goal of vaccination campaigns should be to reduce hospitalization, severe illness and death from Covid-19 and to protect health systems, defends the ECDC, which reiterates that a second booster should be considered. not only for the population with 80 years. and over, but also between 60 and 79 years old and for people with underlying diseases, regardless of age.
“This would be particularly relevant and impactful in countries where the BA.4 and BA.55 wave is starting or has not yet reached its peak,” warns the European center.
The ECDC also adds that the Ómicron-adapted vaccines are likely to be licensed for use in the EU in September and are expected to be available during the last quarter of this year.
However, the distribution schedule and its supply are currently being defined with the manufacturers.
The latest data from the Ricardo Jorge Institute (INSA), released this Friday, indicate that the BA.5 lineage of the Ómicron variant, with greater transmission capacity, is responsible for 92% of the infections registered in Portugal.
In recent weeks, mortality from Covid-19 in Portugal has had a downward trend and is approaching the European threshold of 20 deaths in 14 days per million inhabitants, as well as admissions to wards and intensive care units.
Source: Observadora
