An ice sheet containing about 80% of the world’s ice could cause a global sea level rise of 16 feet (five meters) by 2500.
Scientists predict that the melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) will lead to this increase if temperatures continue to rise at the current rate.
This warming of about 0.32 degrees Fahrenheit (0.18 degrees Celsius) per decade is the result of increased greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
Researchers from Durham University modeled the varying effects of temperature and emission levels on the ice sheet over the next few centuries.
If nothing is done to slow warming, the EAIS could contribute ten feet (three meters) to global sea level by 2300.
Melting can be severely limited if emissions targets are met, which see a limited global temperature increase of 3.6°F (2°C) above pre-industrial levels.
The EAIS could contribute to sea level rise of only about 0.8 inches (two years) by 2100 and 1.6 feet (0.5 meters) by 2500.
Lead author Professor Chris Stokes said: ‘We used to think that East Antarctica was less vulnerable to climate change than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets, but we now know that parts of East Antarctica is already showing signs. loss Ice”.
Satellite observations have revealed evidence of thinning and retreat, especially when glaciers draining the main ice sheet interact with warm ocean currents.
This ice sheet is the largest ice sheet on the planet, equal to 52 meters of sea level, and it is really important not to wake this sleeping giant.
The ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica are expected to lose ice in the coming centuries.
And in 2020, evidence was found that part of the EAIS retreated 435 miles (700 km) inland just 400,000 years ago, not that long ago on geological time scales.
This is only a response to 1.8-3.6°F (1-2°C) warming.
In the study published in Nature, researchers from the UK, Australia, France and the USA analyzed how the EAIS responded to past temperatures and high carbon dioxide concentrations.
About three million years ago, in the middle of the Pliocene, temperatures were 3.6°F and 7.2°F (2°C and 4°C) higher than today.
And this range of temperature changes is the kind we’ll see later in the century.
However, by the middle of the Pliocene, global sea levels were between 33 and 82 feet (10 to 25 meters) from what they are today.
Evidence from sediment on the seafloor around East Antarctica suggests that some of the ice sheets collapsed and contributed several meters.
Carbon dioxide concentrations at that time also slightly exceeded the current value of 417 parts per million.
This warming period occurred on a very long timescale — about 300,000 years, according to NASA — and is believed to be caused by changes in Earth’s sun’s orbit.
However, the current global warming has only been felt in recent decades and can only be explained by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
Next, the team analyzed computer simulations from previous work to examine the various effects of emissions and temperature on the ice sheet.
If warming continues at its current rate due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, the EAIS could contribute about half a meter to sea level by 2100.
Additionally, if it continues beyond 2100, it could contribute about three to ten feet (one to three meters) to global sea level by 2300 and 7 to 16 feet (2 to 5 meters) of 2500.
This will contribute to the significant contribution of Greenland and West Antarctica and the expansion of ocean heat, which threatens millions of people living in coastal areas around the world.
However, the new targets were agreed upon by world leaders attending the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris in 2015.
They agreed to limit global warming to less than 3.6°F (2°C) and continue their efforts to limit their country’s greenhouse gas emissions to 2.7°F (1.5°C) by reducing the increase
International researchers have found that if these goals are met, the worst effects of global warming on the world’s largest ice sheet will be avoided.
Source: Daily Mail
Source: Arabic RT
