A desert and partially destroyed. Using images captured by drones, Associated Press this Thursday paints an “apocalyptic” panorama of Chasiv Yar, a city that Ukraine is trying to keep under its control, despite an intense Russian offensive. Moscow’s military leadership has one objective: to occupy it before May 9, the day on which Victory Day is celebrated to celebrate the Soviet victory during World War II in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin will want to present this achievement as an advantage and proof of the country’s advantage in “special military operation” which began on February 24, 2022.

In addition to the symbolism of May 9, the taking of Chasiv Yar would be an important strategic victory for Moscow. Located at a high altitude, the city (which translated from Portuguese into Ukrainian means “quiet ravine”) could pave the way for other Russian conquests. Right now, kyiv sees it as a “fortress” preventing further Russian advances in the Donbass, the region that Vladimir Putin has already said he wants to control.

Ukrainian military analyst and former colonel Serhiy Hrabsky described to the New York Times that a possible Russian takeover of the city would be like “key” that “would open the doors to long and exhausting battles” to Ukraine. For his part, Viktor Kevliuk, a specialist in military affairs, highlighted to the Financial Times that Chaisv Yar is the “center of gravity of the defensive line in the region” in Donbass.

It is not surprising, therefore, the recent Russian effort to control the 18 square kilometer city, where about 12,000 people lived (in recent times, only about 700 people live, due to the conflicts). According to Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for the eastern military command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Moscow has “From 20 to 25 thousand men try to invade Chasiv Yar and its surroundings.” In addition, forces loyal to the Kremlin carry out around 100 bombing raids a day in the city.

“The situation in the city is difficult,” lamented Nazar Voloshyn, although he assured that the situation remains “controllable.” However, it may not be for long. According to a report from group of experts American Institute for Warfare (ISW) On April 30, Russia will intensify offensive operations around Chasiv Yar. Although they consider it a difficult task, the Russian Armed Forces want to achieve the goal of controlling it before May 9. And they know that, for the moment, they have an operational advantage, which could disappear with the arrival of newly approved war material from the United States of America (USA).

Chasiv Yar: the defensive fortress whose conquest could have a domino effect

Chasiv Yar’s achievement can have a real impact. Domino effect in Ukrainian territories threatened by Russia. Speaking to Politico, Nazar Voloshyn says that if “the Russian occupiers managed to capture this city, they will have the opportunity to launch an offensive” on the nearby cities of “Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.” “These cities are the last strongholds of the Donetsk region that are under Ukrainian control.”

Serving as a true fortification to stop Russian advances, Chasiv Yar, if conquered, would result in Russian troops advancing towards Kostiantynivka, Then he went to Druzhkivka and then to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, Nazar Voloshyn believes. Of those four, the first has the most important strategic value, as it is a place where kyiv’s troops are organized to defend Donbass. There is also a railway line that connects the north and south of that region, which includes the provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk.

This railway line in Kostiantynivka “is the backbone of military supply” in eastern Ukraine, says Serhiy Hrabsky. If the infrastructure is controlled by Russia, this puts Ukrainian troops in a more difficult position to resupply throughout the Donbas (even with Western warfare equipment) and at the same time be able to be used by Russia to its advantage.

The conquest of Chasiv Yar “offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for significant operational advances,” confirms the Institute for Warfare. Assuming there is a “credible threat” of Russia taking over the site, the group of experts North America claims, however, that it will not be controlled “quickly”. Therefore, the May 9 target will be quite ambitious, even with the Russian effort.

A channel and a “long” battle to which Ukraine will try to respond

Russian military analysts, cited by Reuters, also believe that taking Chasiv Yar will not be easy. The Kremlin’s former military advisor, Sergei Markov, predicts a “long” battle and anticipates that it will last more or less the “same time” as that of Bakhmut, the scene of intense fighting from the beginning of December 2022 until May 2023.

Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots believes that, before entering Chasiv Yar, it is necessary to “surround the city” so that there are several “entry points” in the place. “This is necessary to distribute the enemy defense forces in the city and force them to constantly move in different directions, under continuous fire,” he explained.

The second head of the Estonian secret services, Toomas Väli, also rejected the idea that Russian troops could control the city before May 9. “Since they only traveled ten kilometers from Avdiivka, they probably won’t make it.” [naquela data] to Chasiv Yar at this rate. And controlling the entire city will be difficult, because it will be an urban guerrilla scenario, like in Avdiivka. The conquest of Avdiivka and Bakhmut took months,” said the Estonian official.

At the moment, as the Financial Times explains, Russia remains focused on conquering the towns of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Essential to enter and conquer the city, Moscow’s troops will have to cross a 30 meter wide channel. built in Soviet times. And this is an advantage for kyiv on the ground.

In statements this Thursday to the Ukrainian news agency Interfax, Nazar Voloshyn denied some rumors that had arisen and assured that Russian forces have not yet “crossed the channel.” “The Russian invaders use the scorched earth policy and are trying to destroy all our platoons and defense points so that [os ucranianos] They have nowhere to defend themselves,” explained the military leader, adding: “The second line of defense is being reinforced. “The defense forces are ready to fight the enemy.”

American aid, a possible balm for Ukraine

Due to the high altitude of the city and the canal, Ukraine has a slight advantage in terrain. However, this advantage may not be enough if Russia decides to intensify its offensive actions in the region. Right now, Moscow is in a race against time, according to the Institute for Warfare: “Russian forces will attempt to conquer as much territory as possible. before the arrival of American support, which will improve Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the coming weeks.”

It is in this window of opportunity that Russia hopes to achieve Chasiv Yar. The commander of a battalion drones The Ukrainians in the city, Yuri Fedorenko, stressed to the Financial Times precisely that “the enemies understand that Ukraine does not have as many aircraft, air defense systems, ammunition and armored vehicles as they do”, so there is room for maneuver for more application hard. offensive.

However, there is something that could change things for kyiv, highlights Yuri Fedorenko. Russia also understands that Ukraine’s partners “have made a very important decision”, namely the United States, whose Congress recently approved a package worth 61 billion dollars (about 57 billion euros). “We will soon receive the weapons we need. Therefore, in the next month and a half, the enemy will apply the greatest possible pressure,” said the soldier.

In Nazar Voloshyn’s opinion, the Russians are unlikely to achieve their goal of controlling Chasiv Yar, much less in the short term. Still, battles for control of the town are expected to be intense, especially in the near future. Ukraine will, however, have an advantage that could change the game: American war equipment. Until they reach the ground, the Ukrainians will be forced to resist and sustain the Russian offensive.