Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal has little influence on the polls, analysts say. The family called the support for Trump “a betrayal of the father’s and the family’s most cherished values.”
According to the FiveThirtyEight aggregation model, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race in favor of Donald Trump is expected to have only a marginal effect on the polls.
“The direct effect of Kennedy’s withdrawal, according to the major polls, is roughly the same as the value that polls tend to fluctuate based on news or daily campaign events,” two experts from the platform noted in a multi-combination analysis following the announcement on August 23.
The analysis suggests that “Kennedy’s support for Trump will have a minimal impact on the race.” The independent candidate garnered about 5% of voting intentions in polls last month, seeking supporters from both Democrats and Republicans.
“Her support for Trump may marginally help the Republican among white, male and older voters. But the effect of her departure on overall support for the candidates will be small,” the analysis states.
The aggregate of national polls gives Kamala Harris the advantage, with 47.1% of voting intentions. Donald Trump appears with 43.7%, 3.4 percentage points less than the Democrat.
“It’s no surprise that he resigned.”political scientist Thomas Holyoke told Lusa. “They were losing support”added the professor at California State University, Fresno.
Kennedy Jr. emerged as an alternative to Donald Trump and Joe Biden and positioned himself as a potential obstacle to both. But Biden’s departure and Harris’ nomination changed the game.
“I don’t know how many supporters he had who might vote for Trump or even Harris,” the professor said. “This could be a handful of nothings or a joker.”he added.
“Voters who looked to RFK Jr. because they didn’t want Trump or Biden may not be moved by his support for Trump,” Holyoke said.
Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign on Friday, August 23, the morning after the Democratic National Convention ended.
According to political scientist Daniela Melo, the moment was chosen to maximize the media impact and “stay on top” of the weekend news cycle.
The Kennedy family, heirs to a long Democratic political legacy, was outraged by Kennedy Jr.’s support for Trump.
“Our brother Bobby’s decision to support Trump is a betrayal of our father’s and our family’s most cherished values.”read a statement. “It’s a sad ending to a sad story,” wrote Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Courtney Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, Chris Kennedy and Rory Kennedy.
According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center, Kennedy Jr.’s support at the beginning of July, when he reached 15% of the voting intention, has faded in the last two months.
In August, only 7% of voters indicated a preference for independents, and many voters who previously supported Kennedy Jr. opted for Kamala Harris when she entered the race.
Pew Research Center analysis shows that 61% of Kennedy supporters opted for another candidate. Of those, 39% chose Harris and 20% chose Trump.
According to Morning Consult data, in the three days following the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris did not see an increase in voting intention (48%-44% for Trump), but her vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz, increased in popularity. He went from 39% to 42% with a favorable opinion, with no change in the percentage of voters with an unfavorable opinion of him (36%).
Polls in the coming weeks should better reflect the effect of Kennedy’s withdrawal, as the presidential election is scheduled for November 5.
Source: Observadora
