A study by the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto has concluded that, in order for Portugal to dynamically grow its economy and raise its standard of living, it must integrate immigrants in a controlled manner.
A study by the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto has concluded that Portugal needs more immigration if it wants to increase economic growth and living standards in order to “enter the group of the richest countries” in the European Union by 2033.
In a statement, the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto (FEP) said on Wednesday that the study contradicts the idea that “immigrants are driving nationals out of the labour market.”
The study concludes that the integration of immigrants expands investment and employment opportunities for all, in addition to its contribution to social security.
“In Portugal, it is necessary to take advantage of phases of greater growth, such as the current one (driven by temporary factors such as the Recovery and Resilience Plan and the tourism boom) to retain immigrants attracted by this dynamic before it runs out,” says FEP director Óscar Afonso, quoted in the statement.
The study by the Office of Economic, Business and Public Policy Studies was carried out within the scope of the publication Economía & Empresas.
This, the last chapter of the publication, estimates the evolution of the population and its components, such as the natural growth rate and the migratory growth rate in the countries of the European Union between 1999 and 2022.
The breakdown of demographic dynamics in Portugal, in the period analysed, revealed “favourable non-economic factors in most components”, except for the immigration rate, and some measures are therefore suggested.
Among the suggestions, the need to “restore the quality of the National Health System (NHS) with more investment and better management” stands out.
In the health field, the study also highlights the need to invest in health literacy and prevention, suggesting the creation of a tax on sugar, salt, preservatives and other foods, which would be allocated to the NHS.
At the same time, the study recommends strengthening the capacity to retain immigrants, through the training and strengthening of the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA), and countering “the weak capacity to attract immigrants”, especially given Portugal’s peripheral position in Europe.
In this regard, it is suggested to establish agreements with the Portuguese Speaking African Countries (PALOP) and others, “which would also help to reverse the low birth rate in Portugal, since the fertility rate of immigrants is higher than that of residents”.
“Without policy changes, the projected annual economic growth of 1.11% through 2033 results in an estimated population decline of 5.8%, well above the 2.1% loss projected in the 2024 ‘Report on Ageing’,” it notes.
According to the study, if the implementation of structural reforms leads Portugal to grow by 3% annually, “the minimum to reach the half of the richest countries in the European Union in 2033”, the increase in the average immigration rate to 1.321% allows “to offset the negative natural balance and stabilise the population”.
“A more dynamic economy and a higher standard of living require that Portugal organise itself to accommodate an even greater flow of immigrants in the future in a controlled manner, including mechanisms linked to economic development, such as the prior requirement of an employment contract and consultation of the needs of the company’s employees, accompanied by appropriate supervision,” notes Oscar Afonso.
The study also shows that since the beginning of the millennium, emigration in the countries of the European Union has been “mainly of immigrants” and that emigration of residents for economic reasons occurs mainly in countries with low economic growth and initial standard of living.
Source: Observadora
