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International Energy Agency sees downward rise in global oil demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised downwards this Wednesday the increase in global oil demand, mainly due to the net reduction in demand in Europe.

The new forecasts, included in the monthly report on the oil market published this Wednesday, establish an increase in global demand of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, 140,000 less than estimated a month ago, up to 103.2 million.

By 2025, the new forecast points to slightly higher growth, from 1.2 million barrels per day to 104.5 million barrels per day.

The report confirms that, once again, the The increase in oil demand is concentrated in emerging countries.especially in China.

By contrast, demand in OECD countries will decrease by 137,000 barrels in 2024, mainly due to a drop of 140,000 barrels in Europe.

The document draws attention to the Fall in diesel consumption in Europewhich will be 9.3% lower in 2024 compared to 2019 levels, due to lower industrial activity, the drop in sales of cars with this engine and the mild temperatures last winter.

Crude oil supplies are expected to reach a record 102.7 million barrels per day this year, continuing the trend of the increase coming primarily from countries that are neither members nor allies of the OECD (such as the United States, Canada and Brazil), given the freezing of production by the cartel members.

Crude oil production by OPEC and its 10 allies (OPEC+) decreased by 90,000 barrels in April, to 41.43 million barrels per day, mainly due to Russia beginning to implement the production cuts it had committed to (-150,000 barrels daily in April, up to 9.3 million barrels per day). million).

In terms of prices, Brent rose by $1 per barrel in April, to $88, marking the fourth consecutive month of rise, due to continued tensions in the Middle East.

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Additionally, Yemen’s Houthis have expanded their attacks on merchant ships from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and Ukraine has launched a series of attacks on Russian oil facilities.

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However, oil prices moderated at the end of April, reaching $93 per barrel, after it was confirmed that there would be no escalation in the confrontation between Iran and Israel.

This trend continued in the first days of May, when the price fell more than 4 dollars per barrel, also due to doubts about the evolution of the global economy.

Source: Observadora

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