The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai eruption in January 2022 was one of them. largest volcanic eruptions in history. The explosion, which exploded underwater with the power of 100 Hiroshima bombs, sent millions of tons of water vapor into the atmosphere. In recent weeks, some commentators have suggested that the volcano is responsible for the high summer temperatures and are even using it to question humans’ role in climate change., as reported Top.
So, is a giant explosion responsible for the hot conditions this summer?
“The short answer is no,” they told Live Science in an email. Gloria Mannysenior fellow at NorthWest Research Associates and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, and Luis MillanA scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
“Despite El Niño “The increase in global temperatures and the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Haapai explosion may have affected some regions for a short time, the real culprit is climate change,” they said.
And numerous studies show that climate change is not caused by a large-scale explosion, but by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels.
As the researchers explain, large volcanic eruptions often lower temperatures because they release large amounts of sulfur dioxide; this creates sulfate aerosols that can reflect sunlight back into space and temporarily cool the Earth’s surface. But the explosion on the island of Tonga had a different effect because the event took place underwater.
“The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption is unusual because, in addition to the largest increase in stratospheric aerosol in decades, it also sprayed enormous amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere,” Manny and Millan said. said.
water vapor is natural greenhouse gasIt absorbs solar radiation and retains heat in the atmosphere. Manny and Millan said aerosol and water vapor affect the climate system in opposite ways, but several studies have shown that the eruption may have a temporary net effect in warming the surface due to the larger and more persistent cloud of water vapor.
A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change A study in January showed that the explosion increased water vapor in the stratosphere by about 10 to 15 percent; This is the largest increase scientists have ever documented. Using the model, they estimated that water vapor could raise the average global temperature by as much as 0.063 degrees Fahrenheit (0.035 degrees Celsius). Eos magazine in March
Some commentators have attributed the eruption to warming due to this discovery and other studies suggesting a potential warming effect, but the researchers involved in these studies are clear that the volcano is not the main cause of our wild weather.
“Perhaps it would be fair to say that it had an effect. [вулкану] The Hill said the excesses this year were pretty minor. Stuart JenkinsClimate scientist and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Oxford in England and lead author of the January study.
The warming trend of the world precedes the explosion. July may be the hottest month on record in terms of global temperatures, but the last five years have been the five warmest July on record, according to NASA.
Manny and Millan said more detailed models are needed to reveal how much the eruption affected global temperatures compared to fossil fuel burning and El Niño, but the effects are expected to be much smaller than from fossil fuel combustion.
“The global temperatures recorded last July are just a preview of what could happen if we don’t take more bold and ambitious action on climate change,” they said.
In May, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization warned that the annual average global surface temperature could be exceeded by 66 percent. dangerous limit of warming increased by 2.6 F (1.5 C) at one point over the next five years. According to this NASAWith 2.6 F warming, extreme heat waves will become more common, droughts will be more likely, and water availability will decrease.
Source: Port Altele
