It was not unthinkable and even some economists took it as probable. The State accounts closed the second quarter of the year with a surplus, which stood at 1.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which, together with the deficit of 0.4% in the first three months, places the public funds from administrations in a balance of 0.8% in the first half of the year. A positive result —in fact, the only surplus registered in a first semester in Portugal in recent decades— taking into account that the Executive maintains the projection of a deficit of 1.9% in 2022.
The second half of the year should already be marked by the reversal of the feat, with the four economists contacted by the Observer divided on the ease, or difficulty, of meeting the government’s goal. None say they believe that the end of the year will negatively affect the Government’s accounts and two even admit a better than expected result.
Already, of the responses sent to the Observer by email, Paulo Rosa, an economist at Banco Carregosa, seems the least optimistic, anticipating a slowdown in tax revenues in the last three months and an increase in spending on government measures aimed at mitigating the effects of inflation on households and businesses. That is why he foresees that the deficit target of 1.9% ”will be harder to reach“. “The viability of this 1.9% deficit target in 2022 will largely depend on budget execution in the last quarterfrom October to December”, he defends.
Portuguese state with a budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in the first half
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Source: Observadora
