The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) confirmed this Monday that the economic growth of the countries that comprise it should slow down in the coming months, particularly in Europe, penalized by the effects of the war in Ukraine.
Latest CLIIs [Indicadores Compósitos Avançados, do inglês ‘Composite Leading Indicators’]whose objective is to anticipate cyclical fluctuations in economic activity, are in line with the latest OECD economic outlook [‘OECD Economic Outlook’]They have revised down global growth forecasts due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and continued disruptions to supply chains.
According to him, “CLIs are now at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies”: “Driven by high inflation and very low consumer confidence, CLI point to a loss of growth momentum in the eurozone as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, and also in the UK and Canada,” it says.
The euro zone indicator fell in May for the ninth consecutive month, by 18 hundredths of a point, to 99.67 points, that is, below the level of 100 indicated by the long-term average.
The decreases in May continue to be 17 hundredths in Germany, down to 100.01 points; from 21 hundredths in France, to 98.74 points; from 27 hundredths in Italy, to 99.41 points; and 31 hundredths in the United Kingdom, at 99.55 points.
The fall is somewhat less intense in Spain (seven hundredths), but the respective CLI stands at 99.74 points, also below the long-term average.
Outside Europe, the indicator continues to point to stable growth in the United States (down two hundredths to 99.81 points) and in Japan (up four hundredths to 100.70 points).
Among the major emerging, non-OECD economies, CLIs now point to slower growth in China (in the industrial sector) and in Brazil, with the prospect of stable developments in India. Thus, China’s monthly indicator fell nine hundredths, to 98.84 points, and Brazil’s seven hundredths, to 98.42 points.
According to the OECD, “the uncertainties that persist related to the war in Ukraine and covid-19 are translating into fluctuations above normal in the components of the CLI”, so “the indicators must be interpreted with care and their magnitude it should be considered as an indication of the strength of the signal and not as a measure of the growth of economic activity”.
CLIs aim to anticipate cyclical fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months, based on a series of forward-looking indicators, such as orders, confidence indicators, building permits, long-term interest rates, new registrations registration and others. Most of the indicators are available until May 2022.
Source: Observadora
