Black Swan: highly improbable event with three key characteristics. It is unpredictable, it has a great impact, and once it is accomplished, there are always explanations, however unusual, for its occurrence (the September 11 attack on the Twin Towers is one example). A black swan in Russia, explains Volodymyr Havrylov, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, it would be the downfall of Vladimir Putin. “Physically or politically disappear,” explains the retired major general in an interview with Sky News. If a black swan were to occur in the Russian Federation, Ukraine would achieve its goals more easily. immediately, Havrylov believes that Crimea can be liberated in December and the war over in the spring.
Do you think it’s realistic that they can recapture Crimea, say, in January?
— There is a phenomenon called the black swan, an unforeseen event that no one expects. I believe that Russia can face a black swan inside the country, inside Russia, and can contribute to our success in Crimea. There are also military options, with some kind of combination of forces, resources and something else. We can enter the Crimea, for example, until the end of December. It’s possible? It’s possible. It is not excluded that this is so.
If a black swan can take many forms—Google’s success is one more example—in the case of Russia, the major general refers to the future of the country’s president. “Putin disappears” “physically or politically,” says the Ukrainian close to Zelensky, he could help Ukraine.
Havrylov adds that this disappearance could be linked to problems in Putin’s inner circle or to the discontent of the Russian population over so many losses in the war. Or a mix of various factors.
On the negotiations, he said that the Ukraine will trade with Russia when it has withdrawn from all occupied territories, Crimea included. “There is a decision within Ukrainian society that we will go all the way,” whatever scenario is on the table. “People paid with a lot of blood, with a lot of effort, for what we have already achieved.”
In his opinion, a frozen conflict or any kind of pause will only give Russia an advantage, which could reorder troops and attack Ukraine more forcefully. “That is why we have no right to stop. We have to move on.”
As for the end of the conflict, Havrylov believes that it is necessary to be prepared for different scenarios and for a long war. However, his intuition is that the war will be only a few months away. “I feel like by the end of spring this war will end.”
Source: Observadora
