The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said cutting Western support for Ukraine would give “opportunities for the Russians to renew mechanized offensives.”
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The end of Western support for Ukraine could end the current “positional war” and give Russian forces the opportunity to advance “on a large scale with good prospects for success,” an American think tank warned on Wednesday.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in the United States, explained that the current The “positional war” in Ukraine “is not based on permanent parity in military capabilities between Russia and Ukraine.”“which will continue indefinitely, regardless of Western support for kyiv.”
It results, rather, from self-imposed limitations on the technologies the West has been willing to supply to Ukraine and from restrictions on the Russian defense industrial base resulting, in large part, from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance, until now, to fully engage to Russia in this war,” this institute explained in its analysis sent in a statement.
The current balance is therefore “very unstable and could easily tip in either direction by decisions made in the West.”
According to ISW, the end of Western support for Ukraine would deprive Kiev’s forces of air defense, anti-tank or artillery systems, which would give Russia “the opening of opportunities for the Russians to renew large-scale mechanized offensives with good prospects.” of success”. “.
“Most likely, the front lines would cease to be static when the Russians reestablished battlefield maneuvers. It is difficult to see how Ukraine could make up for the losses of these capabilities in a short period of time, if at all. given the state of its defense industrial base and its economy,” he warned.
In this scenario, the Russians “would once again begin to drive out Ukrainian forces, conquer larger areas of Ukraine, devastate Ukrainian cities from the air, and possibly completely collapse Ukraine’s fighting capacity,” allowing Moscow the military victory.
On the other hand, a Expanding Western aid to Ukraine could “enable Ukrainian forces to reestablish battlefield maneuver.” on your own terms.”
“There are weapons in Western arsenals to destroy Russian electronic warfare systems,” this institute stressed, noting that the United States has an ongoing program “to modify missiles designed to attack air defense radars to attack GPS jamming systems and EW systems.” Similar”.
The destruction of Russian electronic warfare systems would increase the ability of Ukrainian forces to precisely attack targets near the front, stopping Russian advances and creating conditions for Ukrainian offensive operations,” this institute exemplified in its analysis.
The ISW highlighted that “increasing Ukraine’s airpower would likely have the most significant impact on the battlefield,” further highlighting the need for the West to “dramatically increase the amount of armor it supplies to Ukraine.”
“Rapid advances require armor, and the lethality of the modern battlefield requires sufficient armor to be able to withstand significant losses and still accomplish operationally significant missions,” he noted.
The institute’s analysis also highlighted that the West “was too parsimonious in providing engineering equipment, especially mine clearance equipment.”
“In truth, the West lacks large numbers of such systems (…) but it can afford to take more risks by temporarily depleting its own systems. stocksas it is difficult to predict a major war that the United States or NATO could be involved in in the short term,” he said.
The think tank also highlighted that US policymakers must realize that “ending or significantly reducing US military support for Ukraine will allow Russia to win this war on the battlefield.”
“This would be a catastrophe not only for Ukraine, but also for NATO and the United States,” he stressed.
Source: Observadora
