For the first time since World War II, a far-right party has won elections in Germany, with an election result that, despite being regional, highlighted Germans’ discontent with the coalition currently governing the country and could have nationwide implications for next year’s federal elections.

Around five million Germans were called to the polls on Sunday for regional elections in two German federal states: Thuringia and Saxony.

According to provisional results, the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) party, which campaigns on an anti-immigration and anti-Islam platform, won the state elections in Thuringia with 32.8 percent of the vote. In the federal state of Saxony, the AfD came in second with 30.6 percent of the vote, just one percentage point behind the CDU.

The short-term concrete impact of this unprecedented result in Thuringia may be limited. As Politico writes, all other parties that elected deputies to the state parliament have, in the past, refused to govern in coalition with the AfD, so without an absolute majority, the far-right party is unlikely to be able to effectively gain power.

AfD wins state elections in Germany. It is the first victory for a German far-right party since World War II

Still, with more than a third of the MPs, the AfD gains the power to block some decisions in parliament, including, for example, the appointment of judges to the state constitutional court. In that state, the AfD is led by Björn Höcke, a controversial figure who has already argued that Germany should stop apologising for the crimes of the Nazi regime and who was even condemned for using Nazi slogans.

But the outcome of the elections in those two states could have national implications, especially given the poor results obtained by the three parties currently governing the country in a coalition that has already shown signs of weakness: the SPD of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Greens and the liberal FDP.

Punishment of the federal government and erosion of the political center

In Thuringia, the SPD got 6.1%, the Greens 3.2% and the FDP 1.1%, meaning that both the Greens and the FDP were left out of the state parliament as they did not reach the minimum threshold of 5% required to elect MPs. In Saxony, the SPD did not exceed 7.3% and the Greens 5.1%.

Deutsche Welle points out that the results of these two state elections are interpreted as an indicator of the performance of the national government: in both states, the AfD obtained more than twice as much vote as the three parties that form the federal government coalition together.

Olaf Scholz’s SPD has almost escaped the humiliation of being left out of both state parliaments, especially in a context in which, as DW points out, polls show that four out of five Germans are dissatisfied with the performance of the federal government.

The social polarisation in Germany, which has fuelled the rise of the AfD, intensified further last week following a terrorist attack by a Syrian citizen who killed three people with a knife in Solingen. The perpetrator allegedly swore allegiance to the Islamic State and was an asylum seeker whose application had been denied and was awaiting deportation.

Following the attack, the German far right hardened its anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric. The measures quickly adopted by the government, which included tightening laws on carrying knives and stricter and more restrictive control measures for asylum seekers, were insufficient to stop the exploitation of the issue by the far right.

In opinion polls conducted before the election, immigration issues were already among the top concerns of residents of the federal states of Thuringia and Saxony. The three most frequently mentioned concerns by Germans in these surveys were immigration, crime and social protection. According to Politico, 81 percent of respondents in a survey for German public television agreed with the following statement: “We need a fundamentally different asylum policy, so that fewer people come to us.”

Another development points to the deterioration of the political centre in Germany: in both states, a new third-place party has emerged: the BSW (Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance), named after the leader who belonged to the East German Communist Party. It is a left-wing populist party that combines anti-immigration positions similar to those of the AfD with left-wing economic and social policies.

With 15.8 percent in Thuringia and 11.8 percent in Saxony, the BSW is expected to play a leading role in unlocking majorities in both states, further contributing to the erosion of the importance of the political centre in Germany.

The AfD itself saw the results as a punishment for the federal government. Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right party, said on Sunday that the state elections had been a “historic” success for the party and called for the resignation of the federal government led by Olaf Scholz.

“It is also a punishment for the federal government, it is a requiem for this coalition,” he said. “The government in Berlin should ask itself whether it should continue in office. The question of early elections should be raised at least after the elections in Brandenburg, because things cannot continue like this.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on all parties that elected deputies in the state elections to unite to prevent the AfD from coming to power: “Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is ruining Germany. It is weakening the economy, dividing society and ruining the reputation of our country.”

Olaf Scholz at risk in the upcoming federal elections

For now, it seems certain that the AfD will not actually come to power, given the cordon sanitaire that the remaining parties are preparing to erect and which could lead to unlikely coalitions such as the one between the CDU (centre-right) and BSW.

The CDU could also end up being the net beneficiary of Sunday’s disastrous results for the parties in Germany’s governing coalition. The centre-right party has called for the resignation of Olaf Scholz’s government. As Deutsche Welle reminds us, a scenario of early elections would only benefit the CDU: if the government were to fall, the SPD, the Greens and the FDP would not be able to secure a majority, leaving governance in the hands of the CDU.

Casten Linnemann, secretary general of the CDU, said on Sunday that the traffic light coalition – so called because its three parties have red, yellow and green as their colours – had been penalised. “A chancellor’s party that only gets a single-digit result in two eastern states must ask itself whether it is still making policies for all the people of Germany.”

At the same time that the far right is consolidating its position and the centre-right is once again gaining ground in voting intentions, tensions and divisions are emerging within the governing coalition: on the one hand, the SPD is making no secret of its desire for greater freedom of movement within the government; on the other hand, within the coalition, the left is not in agreement with the restrictive immigration measures recently passed in response to the terrorist attack (and which have not yet been implemented).

According to Deutsche Welle, these issues, as well as the federal budget for 2025, could become central points of conflict that could ultimately even lead to the fall of the government and the calling of federal elections, in which, according to polls, the far right will be able to consolidate its position even more clearly.

Attention is now turning to the state of Brandenburg, where regional elections are due to be held on 22 September. Polls show the AfD in the lead and the SPD in second place, making these elections crucial for Scholz’s party.

The state of Brandenburg is currently run by the SPD, but if Dietmar Woidke, who has led the state government for 11 years, fails to win re-election, the party could be in trouble in the upcoming federal election. “I hope that everyone will make an even bigger effort than before,” said one of the SPD leaders, Lars Klingbeil, after the regional elections on Sunday. “Now everyone must play their part to make things better.”

A negative result for the SPD in the state elections at the end of the month could put Olaf Scholz’s leadership in doubt: if the party is now focused on being re-elected as chancellor in the federal elections in September 2025, a further defeat for the party could lead the SPD to try to renew its leadership. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who is more popular than Scholz, could be a candidate to lead the party in the next election.

The election results in Saxony and Thuringia also highlight another reality, as The Guardian writes: how, over the past three decades, citizens of the former East Germany have become increasingly disillusioned with reunification, still feeling like second-class citizens. In the paper, political scientist André Brodocz, a researcher in Thuringia, explained that this collective feeling in the former East German states has fuelled the growth of the far right: “The AfD has built up an electoral base that now votes for them out of conviction, and not just frustration with the other parties.”