“I announce my candidacy for the presidency of the United States.” When Donald Trump gave this speech at his complex from Mar-a-Lago, in 2022his hypothesis be elected again as head of state of the Americans seemed short. The Republicans had just been defeated in the congressional midterm elections. Trump was tainted by his association with the violence of the Capitol invasion on January 6, 2021, which earned him a (second) impeachment. accusation. Several other legal cases were pending against him, including one that would later result in a conviction in the first instance.

And yet, two years later, Trump is here again, winning an election and becoming president of the United States again. Meanwhile, he maintained a campaign with his well-known fierce style, had to adapt his strategy when Joe Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris and was the victim of an assassination attempt. Until the last moment everything seemed open, with the polls repeating over and over again a probable technical tie in the undecided states decisive.

However, in the early hours of Wednesday, a clear picture began to emerge, even though votes were still being counted (and could take days to be formally announced): Unless Kamala Harris managed to work some magic and snatch the undecided states north (Michigan and Wisconsin) more PennsylvaniaDonald Trump would probably be the new president of the United States of America. Hours later, with the confirmed projection that the The Republican won the most coveted state.The dream of Harris and the Democrats was completely destroyed.

The increase compared to 2020, even in “enemy” territory like Manhattan

The night started out warm, taking a while until the results of the first tests were known. undecided states. For several hours, victories were only confirmed in two of the seven undecided states (North Carolina and Georgia), by Donald Trump. But in theory, this didn’t mean a certain victory, and it’s not exactly surprising. In these two southern states, recent history shows that they are more favorable territory for Republicans: North Carolina only voted Democratic in the presidential elections when the candidates were Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (only in the 2008 elections). and in Georgia Bill Clinton (1992) and Joe Biden (2020) were the only Democrats to win there in the last forty years.

But, throughout the night, the trend of the votes that were being counted in the other undecided states did not seem favorable to Kamala Harris and highlighted a fact: Trump managed greatly improve your margin in several counties, when compared to the 2020 elections. The increase is visible even in areas that have historically been Democratic strongholds. In Manhattan, in the heart of New York, Trump rose 9 percentage points. Four years ago he lost New Jersey by 16 percentage points against Joe Biden; this morning it was behind Kamala Harris by only 5.

At two in the morning in Washington DC (seven in the morning in Lisbon), the final blow came: Donald Trump was confirmed as the winner in the giant Pennsylvania, the prize of 19 votes in the most disputed and desired electoral college by both. candidates.

“The economy, stupid” never seemed to make so much sense

Donald Trump was a president who defied all conventions. It is not surprising, therefore, that he also manages to question ideas such as those that a former President was subject to accusation is politically dead, as happened with Richard Nixon, or that the shadow of a judicial process shapes the perception that Americans have of a candidate to the point of not giving him their vote.

So what explains this success? There will be much to analyze in the coming days about the sociology of today’s United States, the role of this candidate’s charisma, and how the country’s electoral system can dictate an election. But, immediately, there is one point that stands out. In recent months, polls have shown time and time again that, for Americans, two issues concern them most than any other: the economy and the immigration.

This was evident a month before the election in the Gallup poll, where 52% of voters defined the economy as an “extremely important” issue before voting, the highest figure since the 2008 abortion financial crisis, one of Harris’ main campaign issues. , seemed much lower than issues such as the appointment of judges to the Supreme Court and immigration, all issues much more present in the Trump campaign.

On October 23, a Wall Street Journal article illustrated how inflation, which peaked in mid-2022, has left a deep scar on Americans, who did not experience sudden increases in prices of goods with this dimension since the late 1970s and the early 1980s “This means that,” the newspaper noted, “most Americans were not born or were children when worries about the price of things were omnipresent, accompanied by mirror balls and bell-bottoms.”

This trend has been felt by the Observer on the ground in recent days: the fuel price has been pointed out time and again by several voters as the barometer for their quality of life and for their vote. During the Trump presidency, they said, diesel was cheaper. It was the symbol of the life that was once better and the desire to return to that.

Trump wins half of the Latino vote. Young men and minorities may have made a difference

In addition to the economic issue, with voters wanting to punish the Democrats for the hole they have felt in their pockets for the last four years (with the inflation associated with post-Covid and the war in Ukraine), there is still an element that Donald Trump’s campaign knew how to explore excellently. For decades, political analysts assumed that youths and the minorities They were strongly pro-democratic groups; This election showed that this may be changing and that Trump is precisely the Republican candidate of recent times who has managed to reach out to these groups, especially among male voters.

The data shows that in urban counties, such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (in Pennsylvania), Trump will have achieved a much better result than what he obtained in 2020. And who are the new voters he won over? Most likely blacks and Latinos, who have a strong presence in big cities. In Texas, for example, Democrats have won in predominantly Hispanic Starr and Cameron counties over time; This time, Trump achieved victory there. The New York Times estimates that, at the national level, the candidate will have managed to increase his advantage from a third of the Latino vote to reaching half of the community’s vote. “It is time to bury this utopia of solidarity between people of color”one civil rights activist summarized to the newspaper.

Donald Trump’s abrasive style and his most controversial statements did not harm him in this election; or, at least, they did not overlap with the priorities of most Americans, mainly related to the cost of living, even among minorities and even immigrants who have been in the country for many years. Since 2016, when the real estate magnate decided to immerse himself in politics, a transformative path opened for his life, but also for all of America. Since then, All the political trends we know crumbled at Trump’s feet.. Tonight it really happened. Only with such a candidate would it be possible to attend a go back of this dimension.