The world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, according to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) included in the World Economic Prospects report, published this Tuesday.

“Global growth is expected to remain broadly stable. slowing from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2029 — and remains virtually unchanged relative to the World Economic Outlook forecasts in April 2024 and October 2023,” the document reads.

Still, it’s worth noting that with the revisions, major economies ended up moving closer “as cyclical forces ease and GDP moves closer to potential.”

“As inflation declines, official interest rates are expected to follow suit, avoiding undue increases in real interest rates,” says the IMF, which expects interest rates to “gradually decline toward natural levels.”

Among advanced economies, the outlook is also one of stability, with growth of 1.8% in the two years, although there are different realities among the group.

for those USAfor example, the projected growth for 2024 was revised upwards to 2.8%due to the better results of consumption and non-residential investment, while in 2025 it should slow down to 2.2%, “as budgetary policy is gradually stricter and the cooling of the labor market slows consumption.”

The IMF worsens the growth of the euro zone economy to 0.8% this year

As for the euro zone, growth was revised down to 0.8% this year and 1.2% next, with slowdowns in economies such as Germany and Italy weighing on performance. This is a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points for this year’s growth and 0.3 points for 2025, compared to the projection update made in July.

“In the euro zone, growth appears to have peaked lowest point in 2023“, notes the IMF, and “GDP growth is expected to increase to a modest 0.8% in 2024, as a result of better performance of exports, particularly of goods.”

By 2025, “growth is expected to continue increasing to 1.2%, helped by stronger domestic demand,” the organization indicates. “Rising real wages are expected to boost consumption and a gradual easing of monetary policy is expected to support investment,” adds the IMF, while, on the other hand, “persistent weakness in the manufacturing industry weighs on growth.” from countries like Germany”. and Italy.”

According to IMF forecasts, Germany’s GDP is expected to have zero growth (0.0%) this year, accelerating to 0.8% in 2025. The Italian economy is expected to grow 0.7% this year and 0.8% the next. However, the cases are different, as “Italy’s domestic demand is expected to benefit from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan funded by the European Union”, while “Germany faces the pressure of fiscal consolidation and a sharp drop in real estate prices.

Regarding inflation, the IMF estimates that slow down to 2.4% this yearin the euro area, and to 2% in 2025, already in line with the medium-term objective of the European Central Bank.

Among the most developed economies, Japan also stands out, where growth is expected to slow in 2024, reflecting temporary disruptions in supply and the disappearance of specific factors that boosted activity in 2023, such as increased tourism.

In the UK, “growth is forecast to have accelerated to 1.1% in 2024 and is expected to continue to do so to 1.5% in 2025, as falling inflation and interest rates They encourage internal search.”

In turn, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, an upward revision that reflects improving prospects for China and India.