The first State Budget of the Government of Luís Montenegro has been approved (generally). After months of tense negotiations, especially with the PS, the President of the Government ended up managing to approve a Budget that, during the general debate, the Government itself revealed that it had difficulties sponsoring. But at the same time he does not want it to be distorted, in the most significant warning that, in these two days, has been given for the process that continues in the specialty.

The debate was long, as always, and the final result was already known. But the debate served to give clues to what is to come. The discussion and voting process in the specialty can still cause headaches and the Government has shown that it is aware of this.

The result

In recent months the biggest political unknown has been: would the Budgets be approved? After long negotiations, the PS ended up granting abstention, making the Government’s proposal viable. That is, the result of this vote was already known before it began. PSD and CDS voted in favor and the socialists were the only ones that supported the Government, while all other parties voted against.

the duration

It is always a long task: eleven hours of parliamentary debate, spread over a day and a half. Not even the traffic light that the President of the Assembly of the Republic established to control time shortened this debate.

the warnings

With the Budget pre-approved, given that the PS has already committed to making it viable, the Government moved on to the next objective: ensuring that the specialty phase, during which the measures are negotiated in detail, is carried out with the smallest possible number. Luís Montenegro opened the debate by warning that distorting the document would be an “offense” to the Portuguese who voted in the last elections; Paulo Núncio warned the parties that the EO cannot end up being a “mosaic” resulting from the “collusion” of the opposition; Hugo Soares insisted that a mischaracterization of the document by the same party that promised to make it viable would be “inadmissible.” Even so, the Government ended up seeing a cloud emerge on the horizon at the end of the debate, when Pedro Nuno Santos declared that it is necessary to “continue the effort” to increase pensions in 2025, already after Chega had announced that he would present a proposal in this sense during the specialty. This is where the first obstacle may arise.

Opposition leader candidates

The parliamentary leader of the PS made an intervention so critical of the State Budget that, at one point, in the PCP, António Filipe signed it, immediately provoking; Why didn’t the PS vote against? The socialists justified it with “responsibility” and tried, at the same time, to demonstrate that they will continue in the opposition. They even promised, in the face of a challenge from the Bloc, that “they would be here” to vote against the legislative authorization to change the General Law of Labor in the Public Service. And Pedro Nuno Santos, in his closing speech, kept open the possibility of moving forward with an initiative for an extraordinary and permanent increase in pensions and even left the debate saying that he agreed with the President of the Government that “there is life beyond the surplus”.

But the fact of being alone in the abstention that allowed the Budget to be approved was taken advantage of by Chega from the beginning to the end of these two days of debate. André Ventura always insisted on the new central bloc and even claimed the position of opposition leader. But it was Luís Montenegro who put the brakes on it, stating that it was a “mathematical” issue and that the largest opposition party was the PS. At a time when the Government’s main concern is possible negative coalitions that could hinder its budgetary ambitions and add problems to the initial proposal, the line with the PS was sober throughout the debate.

the difference game

It is one of the biggest criticisms that the Government has received: this Budget, parties from IL to PCP say and repeat, could have been presented by the PS. It was the argument used by André Ventura when he wanted to announce that the country is now governed by a central bloc, or by the Liberal Initiative when he assured that even Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, in his previous incarnation as parliamentary leader of the PSD, have difficulties making this viable. document. The Government dedicated a good part of the debate to denying that it was a “socialist” EO and trying to mark differences. The most repeated thing was that this document lowers taxes and does not increase any, a “hallmark” that the right has been eager to implement since 2015, as Paulo Núncio recalled. The second is that, unlike the PS, this Executive insisted that it does not see the surplus as an objective of its policy, while at the same time it “suffocates” public services, families and companies. It did not convince the majority of the opposition, which spent the debate bringing together the two centrist parties. And Hugo Soares even closed the debate by quoting, as António Costa used to do, Jorge Palma’s song: “As long as there is a way to go, we will continue.”

You enemies

The most left-wing parties came to this debate with two options: attack the PSD for the Budget it presented or attack the PS for the Budget it made viable. And each one chose a path. Despite firing at the Government, the PCP managed to never take its eyes off the socialists: the debate began by accusing the PS of letting this EO pass because, in fact, the document even maintains the policies of an absolute socialist majority; He ended by saying that, with so much criticism coming from the PS, he did not understand how the text ended up being approved. “A lot of conversations and a lot of agitation,” would summarize the parliamentary leader of the PCP, Paula Santos, but when push comes to shove the PS would make the document viable – and the communists would come to the conclusion that the PS and the PSD feel the same way. comfortable governing. with their respective budgets. The center ended up in the same bag.

In the Bloc, the strategy was different: the “traps” of this EO were listed by the bloc’s deputies, who took the opportunity to support the PS and try to demonstrate that the left can seem to be in tune. It happened when Joana Mortágua directly challenged the PS to vote against several budgetary regulations, including the authorization requested by the PSD to change labor laws in public functions. As the Observer said, the PS should do its bidding.

The taboos

Deputies (and officials) came to the debate without knowing, for sure, what the Government wants to change in the general labor law in public functions by including in the Budget a request for legislative authorization to change the conditions of illness, strikes and vacations. . regimes. And they left with the same doubts. The same goes for the one-in, one-out rule.

Bloco, Livre, PCP and PS insisted on these two taboos but received vague answers during the two days of debate. Miranda Sarmento limited herself to saying that they will be “more administrative and bureaucratic” changes that include changes in communication – communication!, she stressed – of strikes, mobility rules and the “improvement” of the evaluation system. Alexandra Leitão (PS) even admitted to having stopped the measure in the specialty since she “does not trust” the PSD in this matter and even suggested that the rule with the authorization request could go against the Constitution.

Regarding the “one entry, one exit” rule, the left raised the alarm several times (accusing the Government of “lack of transparency”) and insisted on knowing how it combines the measure with the lack of workers in various public services. “Where are they going to cut?”

The changes to the public service rules will be “administrative” and will cover “communication of strikes” or “improvement” of the SIADAP

the commitment

The deputies questioned the Government several times about the carbon tax to clarify: will it increase or not in 2025 and, with it, fuel prices? It was Graça Carvalho, Minister of Environment and Energy, who made the commitment: the rate “will not increase” next year.

The guarantee, however, contradicts the understanding of the Technical Budget Support Unit (UTAO), which analyzed the increase in revenue expected from the carbon tax in the OE, of more than 500 million euros. And he concluded that this value is explained, in part, by the increase in demand, as the Government has said. But another part, the largest, is explained by the annual update of the tax on fuel. Only in this way will the State be able to increase the income derived from this rate up to the expected value, according to parliamentary technicians, as the Observer writes.

The carbon tax (which taxes fuels) must rise again in 2025 to reach the revenue planned by the Government

The slap on the wrist

It was the expression “thief” that provoked protests from several deputies in the chamber. In Chega’s final intervention, André Ventura gave his characterization of the OE: it had to give a “signal” to the Portuguese, but he announced that it “gives with one hand” and “takes away” with the other. It brings “more traffic fines, more consumption taxes.” “It is a government as a thief” as the previous one, he stated. This expression led several deputies to protest; one PSD deputy even stood up and, pointing his finger at Ventura, shouted: “You’re a bad boy, man!” Hugo Soares, parliamentary leader of the PSD, asked for calm.

And José Pedro Aguiar-Branco would come to appeal to everyone’s serenity. After finishing the intervention, he renewed his call: he said he had heard from the benches words like “scum” or “miserable” and gestures that “are not appropriate”; He recalled that there are schools to attend and that this was not an “example of citizenship”; called for “moderation” regarding “inappropriate vocabulary”; He asked that opponents be treated with “civility” and that the Code of Ethics be complied with. “In this way we will be honoring the Assembly.”