Scientists warn that the probability of an uncontrolled missile or spacecraft killing someone within the next ten years is 10%.
And they examined the danger to human life of objects that fall to the ground after re -entering the Earth’s atmosphere.
Based on current practice, the researchers found that if the entrance of a typical missile spreads debris over an area of 10 square meters, the probability of one or more casualties in the next 10 years is 1 in 10.
They also said there is a greater risk to residents of the Global South, where rabling areas are three times more likely to reach the latitudes of Jakarta, Dhaka and Lagos than New York, Beijing or Moscow.
The research was done by experts at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.
While rocket launches are different, boosters and other large chunks of rockets fall to the ground or are left in orbit.
In most cases, abandoned parts of the missile re -enter the atmosphere out of control, and debris can fall anywhere in the flight path.
Using satellite data over the past 30 years, Michael Byers at the University of British Columbia and his colleagues predicted “anticipation of loss” – or risk to human life – over the next decade as a result of uncontrolled re -entry. of missiles.
The team focused on parts of the missile that were partially intact and posed a threat to land, sea or aircraft.
The researchers found that if each return spread deadly debris over an area of 10 square meters, current practices have an average 10 percent chance of one or more victims over the next decade.
Moreover, the global south carries this risk disproportionately.
Researchers also say the technology is already available for direct reentry systems, but what is needed is the collective will to use it because of the costs involved.
They concluded that without multilateral agreements on controlled missile penetration, countries traveling in space would continue to export these risks unnecessarily.
“Recent advances in technology and mission design make many of these uncontrolled readmissions unnecessary, but start-up states and companies are reluctant to bear the rising costs,” he said. team.
The study comes amid widespread concerns about space junk and the threat it poses to humans, both in low Earth orbit and on Earth.
The study was published in the journal Nature Astronomy.
Source: Daily Mail
Source: Arabic RT
