“It is time to say enough is enough and make urgent decisions.” This is how Francisco Calheiros, president of the Confederação do Turismo de Portugal (CTP), began the presentation of the study, carried out by the consulting firm EY, which evaluates “The cost of not deciding on the implementation of the new Lisbon airport”.

In the most optimistic hypothesis, of the four studied, the cumulative potential loss of generated wealth (GVA) reaches 6,800 million euros, along with the non-creation of 27,700 jobs per year and a loss of tax revenue of 1,900 million euros. . This more optimistic scenario evaluates the possibility of Portela +1, available in 2028, that is, if the construction decision was made immediately and the recovery of tourism was rapid.

“The gap between demand and capacity at the Humberto Delgado Airport could reach 9 million in a total of four years, which would imply a loss of around 3 million foreign tourists,” says the study.

In a more extreme scenario, in which tourist demand will be rapid, surpassing that of 2019 in 2023, but the decision on the construction of the airport is still postponed, the potential GVA losses reach 21.4 billion euros, and the lack of job creation reaches 40 thousand jobs per year. Lost tax revenue amounts to six billion euros. In this scenario, Lisbon would only have a new airport in 2034 or the Portela +1 option would only be available on that date.

Here, “the loss of passengers could reach 58 million passengers between 2022 and 2034 (average of 4.5 million passengers/year), which would increase the loss of foreign tourists to almost 17 million in this period.”

The study presents two more scenarios. However, according to Francisco Calheiros, these options are no longer on the table, since they evaluate the hypothesis of a slow recovery of tourism, in which the 2019 values ​​will only be verified in 2025, which is not the case. The scenario that predicts a quick decision (2028) and a slow recovery determines losses of 3,500 million euros, more than 21 thousand jobs and 973 million euros of tax collection.

The scenario that evaluates a postponed decision (2034) and a slow recovery indicates that the GVA loss could reach 16,800 million euros, 37,300 jobs would not be created and the loss of tax revenue of 4,700 million euros.

“We cannot get rid of losing 6,800 million in the best of scenarios, we can no longer get rid of that,” lamented the president of the CTP.

To arrive at these values, the “economic impacts derived from the expenses incurred in national territory by foreign tourists passing through Lisbon Airport, plus the economic impacts associated with airport activities located at Humberto Delgado Airport” were considered.

Asked about the options on the table, specifically the Beja airport, Francisco Calheiros stressed that the objective of the study is not to study alternatives. “There are studies for everything. We are not talking about Beja, or Alverca, or Montijo, or Alcochete. What we are appealing is that there has to be a decision. I don’t want to get into the discussion of alternatives. The fact that we have been deciding for 53 years is not acceptable. Enough,” he stressed.

CTP knew of the minister’s decision

The decision published in a dispatch on June 29, and then revoked at the request of the President of the Government the following day, and which provided for the immediate construction of Montijo and the closure of Portela and Montijo in 2034, after the construction of the Alcochete airport, He was known to the president of the CTP. Asked by journalists if he was aware of Pedro Nuno Santos’ decision, Francisco Calheiros admitted that he was. “I found out the day before” by the minister, he revealed at the study’s presentation conference. “We had a conversation with the minister, who said that he was going to announce the decision to start with the Montijo airport, so we congratulate him very quickly, because it is a decision,” he revealed.

“We applauded the decision and applauded again. What we are asking for is a decision. I want to focus this discussion on the content and not the form,” she stressed. Before publicly presenting the study, the CTP took it to the Government, the President of the Republic and the PSD. “It was explained that slow recovery is no longer on the table.”

The sentence issued in the revoked order “is the one that most resembles” the quick sentence to which the study refers, which foresees losses of 7,000 million euros if there is Montijo until 2028. “What I think the Infrastructure Minister is that, for now, we will have Montijo. We are talking about almost 60 million tourists, with Portela plus Montijo. I understood that, so that we are not deciding the future airport for another 53 years, when Portela and Montijo are exhausted, the Government’s alternative was to build Alcochete”.