If Kiev joined today, the EU economy would increase by 1% and its population by 9%, an effect comparable to that of Poland’s entry, reveals a study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.
Follow our live blog on the war in Ukraine here.
The authors of a study published this Wednesday suggest that Ukraine has realistic prospects of joining the European Union (EU) without causing major problems for the bloc, since, if it did so this year, its membership would be comparable to that of Poland in 2004.
This is one of the conclusions reached by experts from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) and the German Bertelsmann Foundation (Gütersloh).
If Ukraine joined today, the EU economy would increase by 1% and its population by 9%an effect comparable to that of Poland’s entry almost 20 years ago, and that would not be a burden for the 27, highlights the WIIW in a statement reproduced by the EFE agency.
“Ukraine will be part of the EU,” Zelensky guarantees on the eve of the Brussels progress report
Ukraine’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates before the Russian invasion, which exceeded the EU average in 12 of the 19 years from 2000 to 2019, suggest that, after the end of the war, Ukraine would have the capacity for rapid recovery, he adds.
Ukraine’s current economic structure, dominated by agriculture and mining, is very similar to that of Poland before its accession to the EU (2007), and the prospect of a future in the Union should drive further development.
The prerequisite for this, however, is the necessary political will in the EU capitals to take advantage of Ukraine’s potential,” says Miriam Kosmehl, an economist at Bertelsmann, in a note cited by EFE.
Experts recognize that the country still has a long way to go in the fight against corruption and in the reforms of the judicial system necessary to offer reliable legal frameworks, one of the main keys to attracting direct investment from abroad.
Another problem that, they admit, could prevent the necessary development is the bleeding of the working-age population that the war is causing, both due to the loss of lives in combat and due to heavy emigration.
According to another study by the same entities published in July of this year, Ukraine will have around 35 million inhabitants in 2040, around 20% less than before the start of the Russian invasion, in February 2022.
Source: Observadora
