The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month precipitated presidential elections in Iran that would only be held a year from now. Now they face three conservatives who want to deepen relations with Russia and China or strengthen alliances with anti-Israel militias and a reformist who has advocated gradual change and a commitment to the West.

The official results of Friday’s election, which may not be known before Sunday, are unpredictable, and polls – especially non-independent ones – are showing different results (the most recent one places the reformist candidate in first place, but others have already ruled him out for second or third). What is at stake seems to be something more than just the presidency.

“Friday’s presidential election will decide not only who leads a country increasingly antagonistic toward the West, but will also help shaping succession plans for the next supreme leader and will indicate whether the Iranians They are giving up their Islamic system of government“summarizes the Wall Street Journal, which describes the elections as “informal referendum” to the regimewhich could help chart the succession to Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader to whom the country’s president reports.

Iranians turn out for presidential election more open than expected

The elections are held at a time when Iran is facing several crises, ranging from the failure of the nuclear deal with other world powers, the return of trade sanctions imposed by the US, which paralyzed the economy, inflation close to 50%, the repression against women which, among other factors, has motivated protests in the streets, in a society described by the international press as disbelieving in the electoral results.

A reformist on the front line and the conservatives. Who are the candidates and what possibilities do they have?

Iranians would only be called to the polls for the presidential elections in a year’s time, but the entire process was brought forward with the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. Mohammad Mokhber was appointed interim president by Iran’s supreme leader, but did not run in the elections.

Who is Mohammad Mokhber, the interim president of Iran?

It is up to the Council of Guardians, an unelected body of jurists and theologians, to approve the names of the candidates. Only six names were given the green light, along the way there were another 74. Two (ultraconservatives) withdrew this Thursday in an attempt to concentrate votes on the remaining conservative candidates and prevent the rise of the reformist candidate who was leading the last known polls. (in other surveys he appears in second or third place).

The most surprising name on the list approved by the Guardian Council was, precisely, that of Masoud Pezeshkian, former Minister of Health, 69 years old, the only candidate from the reformist wing, who has defended gradual change and a commitment to the West. In 2009, after fierce protests against the election of a hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he spoke out against the use of force against protesters. He was also a critical voice, two years ago, of the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, at the hands of the police after being arrested for not using her car correctly. hijab (Islamic veil).

But while it may mean some change compared to the current system, Pezeshkian should not take shortcuts with the Khamenei regime. The Telegraph recalls that in a recent interview, he said that he would follow the policies of the supreme leader if he won the elections. “Even though he is branded as a reformist, he still believes in the same corrupt, repressive and incompetent regime and system that all the other conservatives and hardliners believe in,” says Jason Brodsky, director of United Against Nuclear Iran, a US-based non-profit organization, quoted by the British newspaper.

In Brodsky’s opinion, the candidacy of Pezeshkian, who has the support of former reformist presidents Hassan Rouhani and Muhammad Khatami, was approved with the aim of “generate electoral participation and try to legitimize an illegitimate election.” When the name was given the green light, it would be believed that it would not be a significant threat to the system and would provide an open image. “The regime is betting that he is so unknown that he does not represent a significant threat to the candidates preferred by the Revolutionary Guard and the office of the supreme leader,” adds the analyst.

But the latest known survey could threaten this perception and would even have generated panic in the ultra-conservative wing. The survey published on Wednesday by the ISPA organization (Iranian Students Polling Agency), funded by the Iranian government, places Pezeshkian ahead with 33.1% of the votes. In second place was the conservative Jalili, with 28.8%, and in third place was Ghalibaf, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, an entity that supports him.

It seems, therefore, that everything is open and it is not certain that the reformist electorate will go to the polls, nor that the official result reflects the popular will. The Telegraph summarizes the situation: “The possibility remains that greater support from liberal Iranians could cast doubt on the regime’s plans, forcing it to resort to a more invasive manipulation than usual or accept an undesirable president”.

Pezeshkian could eventually take advantage of the division at the polls between the two conservative candidates, Ghalibaf and Jalili (the latter has been pressured to abandon office in favor of the former, supported by the Revolutionary Guard).

Ebrahim Raisi: An “unpopular” and “ultra-conservative” president and a helicopter crash that raises doubts about Iran’s future

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafpresident of the Iranian Parliament, is seen as relatively more moderate than Saeed Jalili, the former head of nuclear negotiations who comes from a harder line. The Revolutionary Guard’s number one candidate remains Ghalibaf, a technocrat with ties to that division of the Iranian armed forces. But this does not please the ultraconservatives.

Jalili also has strong ties to Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard. He was close to Raisi and one of the prominent names as a candidate for continuity. In 2021 he withdrew in favor of the president (now deceased) in the presidential elections. He is 58 years old and a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, where he lost a leg.

In addition to these three names, he is still in the race Mostafa Pourmohammadi, the only Shiite candidate. He held positions in the Interior Administration ministries and in the Iranian secret services, among other positions, but has not appeared as one of the favorites. On Thursday, two ultra-conservative candidates withdrew to consolidate the conservative vote and keep Pezheskian out of power.

The results of this Friday therefore appear largely uncertain. The law dictates that there is room for a second round – which would take place next week – with the two candidates with the most votes if none of the names reaches at least 50% of the votes on Friday.

Ali Khamenei warned this week against candidates who “He thinks that all roads to progress pass through America.” in reference to Pezeshkian. And he called for “maximum” voter turnout, arguing that the elections “will help the Islamic Republic defeat its enemies.”

The “legitimacy” of the system in question before an unmotivated electorate

As The Washington Post writes, turnout in these elections is crucial for the “legitimacy and stability” of the regime. The turnout rate has seen better days. In 2017, it reached 70%, according to state media. This year, only 40% of eligible voters took part in parliamentary elections, a record low for the country.

The newspaper portrays a society that does not believe in the election results or in the ability to bring about a change of regime. Al Jazeera also reports on this collective disbelief on the day of the polls: “Some voters stay at home because They feel that nothing will change in the system. and that there will be continuity instead of change”.

The country faces turbulent times on a political, social and economic level. Domestically, three waves of protests brought thousands of people to the streets against rising prices, austerity measures and the country’s strict moral codes, to which authorities responded with repression.

On the foreign front, tensions have increased with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 and the response launched by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip. Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel has almost created a new flashpoint in the already inflamed region. Iran has supported militias such as Hamas, Hezbollah (in Lebanon) and the Houthis in Yemen.

The night the “shadow war” between Iran and Israel came one step closer to becoming an open war

An analysis of the group of experts The North American Council on Foreign Relations does not foresee major changes in foreign policy, at a time when the United States is deciding on new leadership, or internally. For example, NPR recalls, neither candidate promises more controversial measures, such as changes to the strict dress code imposed on women (which led to the arrest of Mahsa Amini in 2022).

What the results may reveal about Khamenei’s succession

The possibility of a second round is real, but it may not please the supreme leader because of the uncertainty it entails. Speaking to The Washington Post, Suzanne Maloney, vice president and head of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, an American research institute, said that “a second round is a possibility, but it is not a possibility.” The second round could kick-start the mobilization of Iranians interested in reforms. or even more ambitious results, in a way that could threaten absolute control of the system.”

In fact, the “restrictions” introduced in the electoral process, such as the rigorous verification of candidates, were intended to minimize the unpredictability of the vote. “Traditionally, Khamenei has not been a great player [gambler] in domestic politics”, he adds.

In Iran, the president reports to the supreme leader on critical issues such as national security and defense; ultimate authority rests not with the president but with the supreme leader, whose position exerts influence over major foreign and domestic policy decisions. But the president has some power to set the country’s economic policies, oversee the national budget, and sign treaties and laws.

For the most conservative, the objective of this Friday’s elections will be to maintain influence in the presidency; For reformists, it is a possibility of returning to the political scene.

But the election is about more than just the place in the presidency. Ali Khamenei is now 85 years old and there is speculation about who will replace him. Ebraim Raisi was one of the favourite names, but his early death in a helicopter crash changed the situation for many. The new president could position himself as a possible successor.

Another unknown is the degree of change that the results will bring to Iranian society. “Rather than radical change, elections can produce smaller changesalthough significant“This is a very difficult situation,” says Vali Nassr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East specialist at Johns Hopkins University, in a statement to the New York Times. “The voices in power that want a different direction could lead the Islamic Republic to backtrack on some of its positions,” he assesses.