The IMF assures this Tuesday that a total closure of the gas supply from Russia to Europe would have a devastating effect on the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which could experience contractions of 6% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In a published report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that in Germanythe economic engine of the European Union (EU), GDP would fall by around 3% in case of total closure.
In case of Spainmuch less dependent on gas from Russia, the effect would be significantly more limited, with the GDP will fall about 1%as in the case of France.
The countries whose economies would suffer the most from a total blockade by Russia, an option on which there is increasing speculation, would be, in decreasing order, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Italy, Germany, Austria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Poland and the Netherlands.
Of these, the first four (Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy) would suffer a drop in GDP of around 6% of GDP.
In all but Italy, according to the IMF, there is a risk that if Russia cuts off gas, supply could drop by as much as 40%.
These impacts could be mitigated by finding alternative sources of supply, alleviating bottlenecks in infrastructure, promoting energy savings and increasing solidarity agreements between countries to share gas,” says the report.
Russian gas covers 40% of Europe’s gas needsthat so far has decided not to veto the purchase of fuel from Russia, although the Slavic country has already totally or partially cut off the supply to 12 Member States.
In recent months, deliveries to Europe via Ukraine have dropped by almost 30% and deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline, which transports Russian gas directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea, have dropped by 60%. %.
This pipeline is currently in a technical shutdown due to “planned maintenance” and its viability is uncertain due to problems with overhauling the turbines that Russia has identified due to sanctions imposed by the West, according to Russia’s state-owned company Gazprom.
Gazprom says it does not guarantee the proper functioning of the Nord Stream pipeline
German Economy and Energy Minister Robert Habeck expressed concern in early July about the possibility of a complete “blockade” of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, on the pretext that it is undergoing repairs.
Nord Stream pipeline to be inoperative for 11 days for repairs
Source: Observadora
