Questioned by the parties and also by the President of the Republic, who came to consider the disclosure of data on the impact of the automatic updating of pensions next year as “inevitable”, the Government sent Parliament the three-page document in the that the Strategy and Planning of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security simulated what would happen if, contrary to what was announced two weeks ago, when presenting its plan to respond to price increases, the automatic update of pensions was maintained in 2023.
According to Público, who had access to the document, if that were to happen, the Social Security balance would enter negative territory at the end of the decade, bringing about five years before the moment in which it is calculated that taxable income will finally be less than spending and causing negative balances of more than one billion euros.
In the document, quoted by the newspaper, the Government determines that the “full application of the formula [de atualização das pensões]in an atypical year like the one we are experiencing”, it would have an “immediate impact” on the Social Security balance, bringing forward the first negative balances by half a decade in current forecasts, to “the end of the 2020s, and it can reach values negative up to 1% of GDP by the end of the 2030s”.
According to Público, to reach these conclusions, the Office of Strategy and Planning maintained the estimates of income from contributions and contributions from workers and employers, introducing changes only in the item that refers to pension expenses —which it began to record, in all the years between 2023 and 2060, it amounts to more than one billion euros than what is foreseen in the General State Budgets for 2022.
Source: Observadora
