The National Institute of Statistics (INE) published this Tuesday the rapid estimate of the national accounts for 2022, and the Government expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to have grown by around 6.8%.
Most economists from the main national and international institutions expect Portuguese GDP to have grown between 6.5% and 6.8% in 2022, an upward revision compared to what was projected after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine .
At the end of December, the Minister of Finance was convinced that Portugal was ending “the year 2022 with a growth (of the economy) of around 6.8%.”
This rate is above the 6.5% estimated in the General State Budget for 2023 (OE2023)who entered parliament in October.
The executive’s unofficial forecast is in line with that of the Bank of Portugal (BdP), the most optimistic among the main national and international institutions and which over the last year has been revising upwards the growth prospects of the Portuguese GDP: in March cut the forecasts to 4.9%, in June it improved to 6.3%, in October to 6.7% and in December to 6.8%.
The projections of the rest of the institutions are similar: the Public Finance Council (CFP) expects a GDP expansion of 6.7%, the Organization for Cooperation and Development (OECD) of 6.7% and the European Commission of 6, 6% The International Monetary Fund forecasts GDP growth of 6.2%.
If the forecasts materialize, the growth rate will be above that registered in 2021, when GDP increased by 5.5%.
Portuguese GDP increased by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 and grew by 0.4% compared to the second quarter, according to INE data.
The Government has also shown some optimism for this year, with the President of the Government, António Costa, already affirming that the economic indicators reinforce the conviction that the Portuguese economy will grow in 2023 more than initially expected.
“There are better prospects for the European and world economy. This reinforces the conviction that we, this year, will not only grow as we had anticipated, but that we can grow more than we had anticipated, ”he said in statements to journalists in the municipality of Castelo Branco.
Source: Observadora
