The President of the Republic considered this Friday that, according to the first budget details, the Government is “beyond what many would expect” to respond to the effects of inflationdespite acknowledging that one is “always far from expectations”.
Looking at next year’s budget, the Government goes beyond what many would expect, what is known, because the Budget is not yet known. But as advertised [vai] much further than expected,” said Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
The President of the Republic was speaking with journalists in Nicosia, shortly after arriving in Cyprus, where he will begin an official visit on Saturday.
According to the Head of State, the Government is going beyond what could be expected “to try to minimally accompany inflation and try, in some way, to respond to existing social problems: it eases taxes a little, raises wages, either in public salaries, or in the forecast of the income agreement in terms of private salaries”.
“For what would be a very rigorous financial view, it goes beyond [esperado]. Now, it is clear, given the expectations of many Portuguese, or the needs of many Portuguese, it is evident that, in Portugal as in other places, one feels that one is always far from the expectations of public opinion”, he underlined.
Asked about the fact that, in the agreement being negotiated in the Social Dialogue, the Government has proposed to increase the national minimum wage in 2023 to 760 euros, but maintains the goal of reaching 900 euros in 2026 despite the war in Ukraine, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa replied that “For the Portuguese in general, as for Europeans in general, everything that can be climbed is always short.”
It is always short because it falls short of needs and it falls short of worries. Always short. The question is to know the following -and that is the most sensitive point of the Government’s choice in the forecasts-, is inflation, because in growth there can be various readings and forecasts, but what the Government forecasts seems very reasonable to me ” , he pointed. he said she.
Regarding inflation, according to the President of the Republic, the Government and the Bank of Portugal believe that “there is going to be a fall in inflation, and that is where the big difference lies between the Government and the opposition, or the Government and some commentators or economic analysts”.
“The Government and the Bank of Portugal believe that from the end of this year and, above all, the next, there will be a continuation of falling inflation. There are those who think that this is not inevitable,” he stressed.
“If there is a continuous drop in inflation to values closer to those forecast by the Government, then the Government says: ‘here it is, I did not go further because I am forecasting a slowdown in inflation’. If there is not, then naturally the inflation forecast will have consequences, later, in the review – let’s see in what terms – of what the Government’s forecasts and the Government’s measures are, ”he added.
The President of the Republic considered this Friday that, if the government’s economic forecasts are fulfilled, there will not be the expected level of social tensionand predicted that by January it will be known if the executive was “right” or not.
if the stage [económico] it is not as bad as many predicted and it could be a progressive recovery of the economy and a landing of inflation, so I think that the social consequences -which will inevitably always exist, in everyone’s life- will not have the conflict and tension that it would have to be otherwise,” said Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Nicosia, shortly after arriving in Cyprus, where he will begin an official visit on Saturday.
According to the newspaper Público, the Government, for next year, projects a growth of 1.3%, a deficit of 0.9% and inflation of 4%, also witnessing a reduction of the debt to 110.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). ).
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa admitted that the Government’s forecasts are better than those of the Government itself and “perhaps what many Portuguese expected, within the climate of general crisis” that Portugal is experiencing.
“If the macroeconomic scenario were what I assumed it could be, that is, with a product that does not grow, or even decreases, with a complicated employment problem, and with a complicated inflation problem, continue or accelerate the rise in prices. – I think that social tension can rise there, as in other countries it will tend to rise, ”he said.
According to the President of the Republic, “November, December, January will be a kind of barometer” that will allow us to see “in which of the two directions the economy and the price level will follow.”
When we get to February or March, we will have an exact idea of whether the macroeconomic scenario [do Governo] Did you fully accept it, or why didn’t you do it right? What has happened, better or worse, in economic life and in the price level?
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa considered that the inflation figure forecast by the Government for 2023 “is possible”, but its evolution will depend on the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, “if there are alternative energy formulas in many countries” and if “there is a recovery”. economy in these European countries”.
Asked if, in the event that the Government has to adjust its forecasts, it will have to present an amending budget, Marcelo replied: “No, that implies making the assessment that is necessary at the time. At all times there are specific measures that can be taken if necessary.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa stressed that he will continue to “make alerts”, pointing out that his function “is not to be making optimistic forecasts, it is to alert about the eventuality that optimism may or may not occur.”
“I’ve always had the principle in my life, which is to really have low expectations: so that’s good news. If you have very high expectations, it may or may not be good news. So let’s wait and see. I must say that I was pleased [com as previsões]”, he said.
*News updated at 20:52.
Source: Observadora
