Within half a dozen years, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will be the choice of more than 50% of new car buyers, predicts a study by the Boston Consulting Group. (BCG), which says it believes that “a turning point has already been reached in the adoption of electric vehicles, driven by European and American regulations aimed at combating CO2 emissions.twoas well as the change in strategy of the car manufacturers and the record number of orders placed last year”.
In light of the directives announced by Europe for 2035, the date after which the marketing of new vehicles equipped with a combustion engine is prohibited, and given that both the US and China (the two largest world markets) are committed With the reduction in emissions, the consultant revised its previous projections upwards.
The pressure on countries and on the automobile industry in the context of the decarbonization of transport and mobility in the coming years will force the adoption of the electric vehicle to be accelerated, first at a private level and, later, at a commercial level”, defends Carlos Elavay, partner director of BCG in Portugal.
According to the consultancy’s research, Europe is leading the transition towards more sustainable mobility, BEVs are expected to account for 93% of new vehicle sales in 2035, while the US and China will lag far behind, accounting for 68% and 66% of new registrations, respectively.. However, despite discrepancies between continents, BEVs are expected to account for 59% of new registrations worldwide in 2035, according to BCG.
This estimate implies a tremendous change in consumer choice, insofar as, according to the same work and a decade earlier (2025), battery-only vehicles are expected to account for just 20% of the global new light-duty vehicle market. But the market share of zero-emission models will inevitably grow, and BCG predicts that six years from now, in 2028, BEVs will outsell models equipped exclusively with a combustion engine and partially electrified hybrids.
However, the transition to electric mobility will draw a map with different gradations of “green”. While BEVs are anticipated to capture the largest market share of new vehicle sales in Europe from 2028, the forecast scenario is precisely the opposite for countries such as India, Brazil and Russia.. In 2027, these markets “should account for more than 50% of global sales of strictly gasoline or diesel engines”, predicts BCG, which will explain the delay compared to Europe in 2035, when BEVs will represent only 35% in those countries. of new registrations, according to the BCG report.
Source: Observadora
