Sebastien Apis, a French researcher, said that wheat, “the staple (in food) of billions of people”, was at the center of global market disputes shaken by the war in Ukraine and its aftermath.
He stressed that given the sudden rise in prices and safeguards, there is a “lasting threat” to the food security of fragile countries.
“Nothing can make up for Ukraine’s absence,” Apis, director general of the Demeter Agricultural Thinking Club and a researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), told AFP.
The researcher answered a number of questions to AFP:
Can wheat be substituted?
it’s very difficult. Wheat is a major grain in global food security and is consumed by billions of people in the form of bread, flour or semolina. Corn production is increasing, but it is mainly used for animal feed or for industrial needs.
Aside from its nutritional value, wheat remains a predominantly social and democratic crop that provides low-cost, often subsidized, food production.
– But its price has reached a level that is out of reach for some countries such as Lebanon or Yemen.
Yes, because there is a shortage and we can not produce wheat everywhere. It is produced in temperate climates and only about ten countries produce and can export it in abundance, especially Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Australia. In recent years, the United States has reduced production because it prefers corn and soybeans.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine and Russia became the largest producers of wheat. In recent years, Ukraine has accounted for between 12 and 13 percent of the world’s total wheat exports.
Is the absence of Ukraine in the market enough to explain this situation?
We have terrible geopolitical conditions, multilateralism is suffering from a setback in addition to turbulent climatic periods, severe drought in the southern Mediterranean, and concern in the United States and Europe. India, which had an exceptional harvest last year and reserves allowed it to bring more products to market, is suffering from severe drought and is unable to export.
Given that prices were high before the war, prices are still rising. The price of wheat on Monday next week was 440 euros per ton.
What is your opinion on India’s declaration banning its wheat exports?
India has exaggerated somewhat that it will export 10 million tonnes this year. Prior to the ban, the country had pledged to export between 3 and 3.5 million tonnes, so it remains to be seen whether it will live up to its commitments.
The situation is tense because no country is able to export more than usual. Russia may do this if it has a good impression. But even if the war stops, Ukraine will not immediately resume its production and export capacity.
Will the pre-harvest crisis in the United States and Europe reach its peak this summer?
We face real and long-term risks. We have not seen all the tremors yet, because we have been seeing the implementation of the contracts signed before the Russian invasion in the world markets for two months. We are now entering a difficult phase.
– What is the status of the stock?
For wheat, there are 270 million tons of reserves on a planet that consumes 800 million tons annually. More than half of them are in China, which has one year of stock.
Excluding China, all grain stocks are at their lowest level in 25 years.
International solidarity and cooperation must be maintained. Countries can not be confused about their food security, and at the same time, it should come as no surprise that there are countries that put their national security above all else.
We have to produce wherever possible, especially in Africa, but we need peace and security to achieve that.
Source: Lebanon Debate
