Before entering the White House in January 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to work for his country’s swift return to a nuclear deal with Iran through negotiations.
Over the past year and a half, the United States and Iran have failed to return to and adhere to the agreement reached by the administration of former President Donald Trump in mid-2018.
Tehran, in turn, has accelerated its nuclear program by increasing the rate of uranium enrichment and suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, while Washington has tightened its grip and imposed more sanctions on Iran.
“Washington wants to work with its partners in the Middle East to escalate tensions in the region,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told a State Department news conference two days ago, warning that “Iran could acquire a nuclear bomb.” “In a few weeks, therefore, we want a reciprocal return to the nuclear deal.”
These remarks reflect Washington’s complex position, which has far-reaching implications for its vast network of allies, from Israel to the Gulf states, whether Washington and Tehran succeed in returning to the nuclear deal or the current talks are doomed to failure.
“If the nuclear deal is revived, these countries will be concerned that Iran will have more funding to fund,” Giorgio Cafairo, director of the Institute for Persian Gulf Studies in the US capital, told Al Jazeera Net. Agents and allies of the Islamic Republic throughout the Arab region, an issue that has alarmed the Jewish government and some members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
“If the current talks fail to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, there are serious dangers of approaching the border with Iran getting out of control, and very serious threats to all countries in the region, including Israel and Israel,” Cafiro added. “Six member countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.”
A return to a nuclear deal is crucial to regional stability as Washington seeks to further reduce its military presence in the Middle East and focus on China.
“The agreement between Iran and the United States means that you have higher prospects for stability in the Middle East, which gives the United States more resources for its interests in Asia,” said Sina Azoudi, an expert on Iran at the Atlantic Institute. Washington.
At the same time, Israel, led by Israel, and to a large extent Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps Saudi Arabia, are considering any move to lift international sanctions against Iran.
On the other hand, Professor Mahsa Rouhi, an expert at the Pentagon National Defense University, believes: “It is necessary to convince the world with creative solutions that Iran will benefit financially from returning to Borjam, even if the Biden government cannot guarantee that it will leave Borjam.” “It can’t be.” Agreements during the rule of subsequent governments.
For his part, David de Rosh, a professor of security studies at the National Defense University and a former US military official, said: “If progress is made and the Vienna talks move towards an agreement, I expect Biden to ask the Israelis to support him. do.”
“The UAE and Bahrain see themselves in a boat with Israel on a series of geopolitical and security issues that are motivated to join the Ibrahim Accords in 2020,” Cafiro told Al Jazeera Net.
At this stage, Kafiro believes that “with the uncertainty of the fate of the Iran nuclear deal, we have good reason to expect the two Arab capitals of the Persian Gulf and Tel Aviv to continue to strengthen their security and defense cooperation.”
“Without reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran will continue to increase its capabilities,” former US ambassador to the Middle East David Mack told Al Jazeera Net. In addition, the Biden government must rely on the leaders of Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Kuwait and Baghdad to increase oil exports to the world market until it can break the current stalemate.
He added that reaching an agreement with Iran is the fastest way to reduce the nuclear threat and control crude oil prices, which has become a major political burden on Biden.
For the past several years, Israel has pursued a policy of cyber-attacks, targeted killings and sabotage in an effort to slow down Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran responded with cyber-attacks on Israel and kinetic attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, as well as accelerating its nuclear activities.
However, Sima Shine, head of Iran’s program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said in a scenario that the talks would fail: “Iran will continue to pursue nuclear weapons, from here the situation can change. Become. There is war in the region, or at least more clashes in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, which increase the turmoil in the region.
“If the information shows that Iran is looking for a nuclear warhead, I do not think anyone in Washington or Israel can ignore them,” Schein said.
While one member believed that “the apparent stalemate or collapse of diplomatic efforts could lead the United States to a path of confrontation with Iran that involves the entire region.”
He added: “This may explain why countries like the UAE, which used to be short on Burjam and even welcomed the US withdrawal during the Trump era, are now looking to improve relations with Tehran.”
“This time it may be more difficult to contain the tension between Israel and Iran. Israel has temporarily stopped sabotage and terror since the first nuclear deal in 2015,” said Dalia Dasa Ki, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. ” But after Trump’s departure, Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites resumed, even on the eve of talks to revive the agreement in April 2021.
And if Israel does not believe that the new agreement restricts Iran’s program enough, or if the time limits for it are too short, attacks may continue, even if Iran adheres to the terms of the new agreement.
In addition to the above, if an agreement is reached, there is another challenge on the horizon: What to do if the next US administration pulls out of the agreement again? Will Iran then announce the end of its stated position of remaining a non-nuclear state?
Source: Lebanon Debate
