The announcement of the re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2024 is expected shortly, between the end of the public hearings on the assault on the Capitol, in which he is the main target, and the midterm elections. November mandate.
Sources close to the former president told the New York Times that Trump believes re-election will distract from media attention devoted to the Jan. 6 heist hearings. The Washington Post cites two advisers Trump intends to announce in September.
Among the various factors that weigh in on the decision is also the low popularity of Joe Biden, which stands at 38.7%. But a pre-election replay ad has the potential to backfire, giving Democrats a way to galvanize anti-Trump voters.
To Everett Vieira III, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, it would make more sense for Trump to wait and announce his re-election after the November midterms.
“There, yes. [o congressista republicano] Kevin McCarthy becomes president of the House of Representatives, the parliamentary commission that investigates on January 6 will be cancelled”, the analyst told Lusa.
If Republicans also win the Senate, GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell could block all of Biden’s nominations “and Trump can campaign on that.”
“Trump has name recognition, he has people fighting for him to this day, but I think it will wait until after the midterms,” he said.
According to political scientist Jeffrey Cummins, interim dean of the College of Social Sciences at California State University, Fresno, an advance announcement is often made to “advance the announcement of other candidates and try to attract donors as soon as possible.”
However, this case could also be a matter of launching the campaign before the Justice Department files a criminal charge against Trump for his role in the Capitol robbery.
“You can argue that a presidential candidate should not be the subject of an attempted criminal conviction,” Cummins suggested. The analyst said a criminal investigation into Trump would favor Republican rival Ron DeSantis, but warned that such a case takes a long time to build and prosecute and that time may run out until 2024.
The congressional committee investigating the Capitol robbery is cooperating with the Justice Department on matters that could implicate Trump. Commission leader Bennie Thompson told reporters the department was investigating a bogus “big voter” scheme designed to fraudulently keep the former president in power.
What happens if Trump runs and is indicted? And if you win? “It is not clear what will happen if there is a criminal case and Trump wins the election,” Jeffrey Cummins admitted. “We have never had a situation like this.”
CNN reported last week that Donald Trump regularly questions his allies about when the public hearings will end, the impact of which is being greater than expected. The parliamentary committee was expected to finish its work in mid-July, but the timetable has been extended. The next public hearing is expected to take place on Thursday, July 21.
Given the context, and the fact that the presidential elections are more than two years away, political scientist Brian Adams believes that it is still too early to start the campaign.
“It would not be to Trump’s advantage to announce his re-election now,” said the analyst, a professor at California State University, San Diego. “I don’t think Ron DeSantis and other potential candidates will drop out because of that,” he explained.
Adams said an early announcement would not have the effect of dampening the aspirations of Republican politicians like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
“Historically, when someone declares himself a candidate for the presidency years in advance, he doesn’t get great results,” he said.
Also the idea that Trump will be guaranteed re-election if he wants to run again, he believes, is rash. “I think there’s going to be a competitive primary among the Republicans.”
This view is in line with the content of several articles in the US press, from Politico to CNBC, reporting a Trump-related “fatigue” among major Republican donors, who are scrutinizing the viability of other candidates.
“The earlier a candidate announces,” said Everett Vieira, “the longer he walks with a target on his back.”
Source: Observadora
