The accounts are from a former deputy finance minister and deputy governor of the Russian central bank, Oleg Vyugin: Western sanctions against Russia have had a efficiency between 30% and 40% in the country’s economy, and not anymore because Russia found ways around the restrictions and interrupted the growth process for “several years”.
The Russian economy started the year strong and was on track to finish 2022 with 6% growth, if it weren’t for the sanctions. For the expert, the “main” effect of the sanctions was that the “process of economic growth in Russia has been discontinued for several years”. The restrictions imposed by the West affected the economy, especially on the import side.
In the first eight months of the year, Russia saw how the trade balance (difference between exports and imports) more than tripled, even reaching a record, which is explained by the fact that imports were severely restricted. On the horizon, Oleg Vyugin sees dark clouds.
The country is facing a serious product shortage, which may have an impact on the industry, especially in the technology sector, which is highly dependent on foreign purchases. This will make “Russia use second-rate technology and spend huge resources to create what already exists in the world, but it cannot be imported. If the situation continues, Russia”will see a gradual decline in the level of technological development”.
This is also the reason why any export restrictions would cause “serious harm”. “If exports are severely restricted… this will cause serious damage“, with breaks in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), anticipates the specialist.
In the second quarter of the year, the Russian economy contracted by 4% compared to the same period of the previous year, with the Ministry of Economy projecting that GDP will fall by 2.9% in 2022, a forecast well below the 11% projected by the World Bank.
Source: Observadora
