“This is the fourth time I have been displaced. From Nuseirat to Khan Yunis, then to Rafah and now again. “I don’t even know where I’m going.” This was what a Palestinian told the American CNN team in the southern Gaza Strip last Monday afternoon. It was that same day when pamphlets rained down from Israeli planes advising the evacuation of that city, where it is estimated that, at this moment, they are located, around 1.4 million people. Soon, the warnings said, Israel would attack Rafah.

Those who managed to try to leave, some as early as Tuesday, under shelling that killed at least 27 people and wounded more than 150, medical teams in Rafah told the New York Times. Israel’s recommendation is that civilians head to the town of Al-Mawasi, next to the Mediterranean, where there is currently a refugee camp. It is, Tel Aviv guarantees, a “safe zone.”

It’s not exactly true. On the one hand, the area has already been subject to bombing in recent months, as Doctors Without Borders reports. On the other hand, the risk of humanitarian disaster is high. “Even before the evacuation order, Al-Mawasi was already uninhabitable,” said one of the directors of the NGO Mercy Corps, in a statement. “Our team reports endless rows of tents under a scorching sun, with no help in sight, no electricity, water or humanitarian aid.”

Rafah was, until then, the safest place for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. And even there, conditions were painful, as Unicef ​​spokesman James Elder reported, speaking in proportions of one bathroom for every 850 people and one shower for every 3,500. In Al-Mawasi, he stated in a instructions“It’s even worse.”

Several foreign leaders have warned the same thing in recent hours, which is why they have actively condemned Israel’s military incursion into Rafah. “The ground offensive has begun, despite all the requests of the international community,” he lamented. Josep Borrell, diplomatic representative of the European Union. “There are 600,000 children in Gaza. They will be pushed to so-called “safe zones.” There are no safe areas in Gaza.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock endorsed Borrell’s statements and recalled that an even greater humanitarian crisis is looming: “A million people cannot simply disappear into thin air. “They need protection.” wrote in X. “The Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings must be reopened immediately.”

The closure of the only points through which humanitarian aid enters could worsen a “catastrophic famine”

Rafa Is Kerem Shalom They were, until this Monday, the Gaza’s only points of contact with the outside world. It was there – in Rafah, on the southern border with Egypt, and in Kerem Shalom, in the southwest, on the border not only with Egypt but also with Israel – that the few humanitarian aid trucks authorized to enter the country passed until now. enclave.

However, both entrances were closed by the Israel Defense Forces. After the bombings on Rafah, Israeli troops advanced to the city’s border post and began to control it, closing it. Kerem Shalom was the target of a barrage of rockets, fired by Hamas this Tuesday morning, towards the Israeli side of the border, prompting Tel Aviv to respond by closing that crossing.

Without the influx of food, water and medicine, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, and the United Nations notify that “The catastrophic hunger already felt in northern Gaza will get even worse”.

Continuation of the interruption of the entry of aid and fuel supplies into the #Rafa The crossing will halt the critical humanitarian response across the country. #Gaza Strip

The catastrophic hunger facing people, especially in the north #Loop It will get much worse if these supply routes are disrupted. pic.twitter.com/CYMxbbHMbL

—UNRWA (@UNRWA) May 7, 2024

Everything will depend on the objectives of the Israeli Army. For now, Tel Aviv guarantees that this is just a Operation to establish “control” in Rafah, in order to destroy the four Hamas battalions that remain in the city, as well as the group’s main leaders, something that the United States has not opposed, although it is a limited operation that does not culminate in a total occupation . But will Benjamin Netanyahu’s government agree? And how many will die in the meantime?

The three-phase agreement that seemed closed but was not. Hamas and Israel disagree on when war should end

Threats that Israel intended to enter Rafah had been around for a long time. But they took place in a very specific period: days after the Hamas announced that an agreement had been reached for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Tel Aviv was quick to deny understanding and, shortly after, advanced towards the south of the enclave.

To understand everything that happened, it is necessary to take a step back. After months of deadlock in negotiations, a breakthrough was achieved on April 26: the two sides reached an understanding on most of the principles of a three-phase agreement. The first would involve a 42-day ceasefire to allow the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli territory, at the same time Hamas would free 33 of the hostages which he still maintains in Gaza.

The big problem is that the next two phases, which concerned the reconstruction of Gaza and the future of the region, still had aspects to iron out. Specifically, one essential point divided the two sides: when a definitive ceasefire should be implemented, that is, in practice, when the war would end. Hamas demanded that the agreement impose an end to all military hostilities in Gaza in the second phase; Tel Aviv refused, wanting to maintain the possibility of carrying out military operations in the future.

Given this, Hamas rushed to publicly announce an agreement, hoping that, pressured by popular and international support, Netanyahu would agree to discuss future details later. But Israel pulled the rug out from under him and assured that there was still no understanding: “The idea that we will stop this war before achieving all our objectives is out of the question,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said days before. He confirmed this on Monday, when he left for the Rafah raid.

Whether this operation is temporary or will become a permanent occupation, no one knows for sure. This probably depends on several factors. Tel Aviv’s move may be to try to condition Hamas and get it to give in to negotiations through military action. This because Negotiations continue hand in hand with the war.. Hamas and Israeli government officials arrived in Cairo on Tuesday to continue fine-tuning a possible agreement. The American director of the CIA, William Burns, will also join in to try to mediate, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Because, in truth, both sides are interested in achieving at least a ceasefire, but its duration remains an obstacle. As Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer summarizes, on the side of Hamas, the leader Yahya Sinwar wants, above all, “to take a victory lap outside the bunker“, as summarized by a source from the Tel Aviv secret services. If he gets guarantees that the ceasefire will be permanent, Sinwar believes he will be able to maintain some kind of Hamas presence in Gaza (perhaps even claim credit for the agreement) and, in doing so, ensure the group’s survival.

Is Bibi heading towards an all-out military siege or is an agreement still possible?

However, on Israel’s side, Netanyahu faces a more politically complicated situation. You allies of far-right parties who support his government have been clear in desire to enter Rafah and completely control the Gaza Strip. One of his leaders, Itamar Ben-Gvir, even threatened Netanyahu this Saturday: “He knows very well what the price will be” that he will pay for not fulfilling “his commitments,” he said, hinting at a possible fall of the government.

The Israeli Prime Minister has also repeated that the objective of this war is “the total destruction of Hamas” and, with the agreement on the terms that Hamas wants, Netanyahu would have to admit at least partial defeat. “Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire that will allow it to maintain some military capabilities. “Bibi just wants a temporary pause on the path to ‘total victory,’” summed up Frank Lowenstein, former White House envoy for the Middle East.

However, the pressure on Netanyahu to accept the deal is also great. On Monday night, families of hostages still in Gaza participated in demonstrations calling for just that. And they are not alone: ​​a survey carried out in recent days reveals that 62% of Israelis surveyed prefer an agreement leading to the release of the hostages instead of military action in Rafah.

In addition to internal pressure, there is also international pressure, personified in the ally USA. The divergences between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu are increasingly noticeable and Washington despairs of not having voted on the Israeli side in oiling its long-term plan for Gaza, with the rehabilitation of the Palestinian Authority, preferring instead to maintain a war without a doubt. in sight.

When the bombs stop, what Gaza will emerge from the rubble? Biden and Netanyahu differ on plans for “the day after”

The humanitarian crisis in Rafah could further aggravate diplomatic tensionsespecially with the neighbor Egypt. By controlling the border crossing in that city, Tel Aviv is violating the agreement it signed with Cairo in 2004, which provides for control of the Philadelphia corridor (the entire southern border strip of Gaza) by the Egyptians. And it feeds the ghosts of the Cairo regime, which has been suspicious for years of a possible Israeli plan to send thousands of Palestinians to the Sinai Peninsula. “That corridor is much more important than the four battalions that Hamas has in Rafah,” military expert Ofer Shelah summarized to the Wall Street Journalist. “Hamas is supplied and strengthened mainly thanks to the Sinai Desert.”

A sign that Israel might want to occupy Rafah more definitively? Or is this military offensive just a form of negotiating pressure by force of arms? The answer is only in the heads of Israeli leaders. Alon Pinkas, former Israeli consul in the United States, emphatically told the New York Times that Netanyahu is “out of options” and that he embarked on a near-suicidal mission, “turning Rafah into a a kind of Stalingrad”.

But the Israeli war cabinet is not made up of Bibi alone. And this Tuesday, the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, visited the country’s troops in Rafah, where he assured that the The operation will continue until the last Hamas brigade is destroyed, “or until the first hostage is handed over to Israel.”. A sign that, regardless of the public rhetoric, the path to negotiations may remain open.