This Sunday morning, the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, made an official visit to the province of East Azerbaijan to inaugurate a dam. He was accompanied by a delegation composed of the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other diplomats in Tehran. They left to return to the capital in the early afternoon. Hours later the first news arrived, indicating that a helicopter carrying the presidential escort had crashed. But Iranian state television later confirmed the information: After all, it was the plane carrying the presidential and diplomatic delegation that suffered a “forced landing” in the Iranian region of East Azerbaijan, near the city of Varzaghan.

Rescue teams immediately mobilized to the scene. However, they soon faced several difficulties. It was raining, foggy and cold: around 7 degrees. With an aggravating factor: the terrain was mountainous, with few accesses, which complicated the procedures. Iran sent armed forces to the site and several countries offered to help the Iranian authorities. Turkey sent a 32-man team and the European Union provided the Copernicus satellite system to locate the helicopter. So far, without much success.

By the end of Sunday night, only the coordinates of the place where the helicopter crashed had been obtained. Furthermore, the Iranian regime, through state television, changed the narrative throughout the afternoon: it went from a “forced landing” to an accident, caused by bad weather in the region. In theory, a planned attack by internal or external opponents of Ebrahim Raisi, an ultra-conservative president elected in 2021 and who does not enjoy particular popularity among Iranian society, was ruled out.

Even without more detailsinevitably future scenarios began to be designed. According to the Iranian Constitution, in the event of the death of the president, it will be the deputy Mohammad Mokhber who will immediately replace him and call elections within 50 days. However, unlike several regimes, the position of president is not that important. Above is the Supreme Leader, currently held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 85 years old.

The name of Ebrahim Raisi, a politician who was a jurist and dedicated to the study of Islamic law, has been considered to replace Ali Khamenei, being considered the most natural successor. If the death of the President is confirmed, There will have to be changes to the original plans. In a statement issued this Sunday afternoon, the ayatollah guaranteed, however, that the accident will not cause any “disturbance” in the country’s governance.

“Iran’s second most important man” who is not “particularly popular”

Born in 1960, Ebrahim Raisi was born into a conservative and religious family in the city of Mashhad. It is not surprising that in 1979 he openly supported the Islamic revolution while studying law in Tehran. With a doctorate in jurisprudence and Islamic law, the 25-year-old, as The Guardian reports, soon held a prominent position: He was appointed deputy prosecutor of Tehran.

He progressed in his legal career and, in 1988, as an ally of the regime, he joined the so-called “death commission”, appointed by the former supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. According to humanitarian organizations, Ebrahim Raisi, along with four other jurists, was responsible for the execution of between 4,500 and 5,000 prisoners linked to the opposition. These inmates were already serving their sentences, but the government wanted to eliminate the elements it considered disloyal.

Questioned later about what different international organizations described as a “massacre,” Ebrahim Raisi did not show remorse. On the contrary. “If a judge or a prosecutor defended the safety of his people, he should be praised… I am proud to defend human rights in all the positions I have held so far,” he said, quoted by Reuters.

Always linked to the Islamic revolution, Ebrahim Raisi became prosecutor of Tehran, headed the General Anti-Corruption Inspection Office, was attorney general of the Special Clerical Court and became attorney general of Iran. Over the years, the current Iranian president has taken a firm stance. against all those who dare to challenge the regime. In 2009, as The Guardian recalls, he supported police repression against protesters.

The door to politics was always ajar. In a theocratic regime in which justice is at the service of political power, Ebrahim Raisi runs for president in 2017, obtaining the support of several conservative parties. He loses the elections and Hassan Rouhani wins, with 57% of the votes, a more moderate candidate. Despite ending up defeated, gained visibility in public space and also with the ayatollah.

In 2021, Ebrahim Raisi, sanctioned by the United States two years earlier, tries again to become president of Iran, and this time he wins with a result of around 72%, in an election in which the Ayatollah openly supported him. most Iranian clerics. Despite the important victory, these elections were the least voted ever: only 48% of Iranian voters voted — a form of challenging the presidential election whose outcome appeared to be known before the results were announced. Four years earlier, 73% of Iranians had voted.

Unlike his predecessor, the then new leader, encouraged by the ayatollah, broke all ties with the West, including the 2015 nuclear agreement, and gave more strength to the so-called “axis of resistance”, formed by Hamas, the Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. Betting on the tightening of more repressive measures, Ebrahim Raisi inherited, however, a country suffering a deep economic crisisdriven by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking to Sky News, the Middle East correspondent described Ebrahim Raisi as a “relevant figure in Iranian politics and religious society”, but he is not. “universally popular” for their more conservative and radical “attitudes.” Furthermore, he has always been a representative of the ayatollah’s wishes, almost never separating from the supreme leader.

In 2022, the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, arrested for violating the dress code imposed precisely by Ebrahim Raisi, sparked a wave of demonstrations in Iran, the largest uprisings in the country since the 1979 revolution. The Iranian president ordered the police forcibly repressed the protests and arbitrarily detained protesters using violence.

In foreign policy, during the president’s term, Iran became closer to Russia, becoming one of its greatest allies. It even supplied drones to Moscow to attack Ukraine. Regarding the conflict between Tel Aviv and Hamas, the way in which Tehran managed its international relations stood out in the spotlight of the international community. For the Iranian regime, Israel is considered its greatest geopolitical rival. Tensions increased as the months passed, and in April, Iran attacked Israeli territory with drones and missiles, in retaliation against Israel for the attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria.

Iran’s economic difficulties and the problems of new elections

Tensions with Israel, economic difficulties (such as the collapse of the Iranian rial and widespread poverty) and a country practically isolated within the international community, the target of Western sanctions. This is the current portrait of Iran, which is going through difficult times, as the New York Times reports. Holding elections in 50 days will be a problem for the regime, Ali Vaez, Iranian director of the International Crisis Group, tells the newspaper.

“It will be a great challenge for a country that is in the middle of a serious legitimacy crisis,” said the expert, recalling the last parliamentary elections in March 2024. Although the parties loyal to the president and the ayatollah won, millions of Iranians boycotted the elections again. “This shows how unpopular the Islamic Republic is. “There is a deep division between the State and society.”

For all these reasons, it is not surprising that the next elections could be the cause of new protests. In X, the group of experts The North American War Institute writes that the eventual death of Ebrahim Raisi could have “significant and long-term implications for the regime.” However, the impact will not change the configuration of the current Iranian government. “It is not going to change the trajectory of the regime.”

oh group of experts He highlights, however, that the eventual death of Ebrahim Raisi could change the succession of the ayatollah, who “deeply trusts” the current president. “Raisi has been the overwhelming favorite to succeed Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, despite his unpopularity. Raisi’s death could therefore have significant implications for the succession of the supreme leader and Khamenei’s vision for the future of the regime.”

Therefore, it is unknown who will succeed the ayatollah. Among the names mentioned, Ahmad Khatami, a veteran politician of the Assembly of Experts, could be chosen. But everything will depend on whether Ebrahim Raisi is still alive after the accident in the mountains of eastern Azerbaijan, which could change the face of an increasingly disputed regime.