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Ukrainian troops have been on Russian territory for more than a month. It was the first ground incursion into the invading country since the war began more than two and a half years ago and was seen as a U-turn in Zelensky’s strategy. But now Ukraine appears to be losing ground in Kursk. Or not.

According to the Ukrainian president, the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region follows the plan drawn up by kyiv. But what is happening in this border area?

The Russian Defense Ministry says offensive actions in recent days have resulted in the liberation of ten villages, and while Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged the existence of a counterattack, the Pentagon has already devalued Moscow’s reaction.

“What we have seen is Russian units starting to try to carry out some kind of counteroffensive in the Kursk region. At this stage, I would say it is marginal“But it’s something we’re obviously paying attention to,” Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said at a news conference Thursday.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) takes a closer look at the Russian army sent forward. more experienced military personnel to the region occupied by Ukraine and which is preparing for split up the enemy incursion before launching a full-scale counteroffensive.

HE panel of experts The US-based institute collected geolocated images on 10 and 11 September, showing that Russian forces retook positions east of Zhuravli (northeast of Korenevo) and advanced north and northeast of Snagost (south of Korenevo). The areas mentioned are marked in red on an interactive map published by the institute.

“The size, scale and potential prospects of the Russian counterattacks on 9/11 at Kursk are not clear and the situation remains fluid “At the time of this report, it is premature to draw conclusions about further Russian counterattacks and ISW will continue to monitor the situation,” the institute said in its latest report on the war in Ukraine.

The red line shows the Russian counteroffensive at Kursk. In grey are the Russian and Ukrainian checkpoints. The blue dotted line is the Russian area occupied by the Ukrainians and the yellow line is the area that Russia says it has already recaptured.

According to ISW, despite several Russian sources claiming that they have completely seized the town of Snagostwas not observed “Visual confirmation of these statements.” He also claims that Ukrainian forces continued to counterattack in areas where Russian forces launched counteroffensives and conducted additional attacks outside already occupied territory, achieving advances in Glushkovsky Raion.

Zelensky says Russia has launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, but within the scope of the Ukrainian plan

Visual evidence collected by the institute suggests that Russian forces counterattacking at Kursk are “operating in company-sized units and may be using more experienced unit elements in combat to carry out counterattacks.”

NEW: Russian forces continued to counterattack across the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 12 September, but only achieved marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area. ????(1/5) pic.twitter.com/yZbn5VcKrj

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) September 13, 2024

According to the same report, Russian forces may have the “intention of temporarily divide the Ukrainian conquest in Kursk before beginning a more organized and better-equipped effort to expel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory.” The places where Russian forces are currently carrying out counterattacks, along the western edge of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, are “mostly made up of fields and small settlements,” the institute also reports.

Zelensky says everything is going according to plan. Lavrov promises to “expel” invaders

The Ukrainian president maintains that the Russian counteroffensive was in his plans. Since August 6, when Ukrainian forces entered Kursk, they have always wanted Moscow to divert troops from their territory, which caused Russia to reduce its offensive in the Donbass and in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.

Moreover, if kyiv were to keep Russian territories occupied for some time, it could use them as bargaining chips for eventual peace negotiationsIn other words, the Ukrainian authorities can only liberate Kursk and any territories it manages to conquer, if Russia agrees to abandon the Ukrainian territories.

An eye for an eye. Ukraine tries to start a new phase of the war and takes advantage of Russia’s failures in Kursk: “It was a slap in the face for Putin”

Russia, for its part, says that kyiv’s plans have failed. Not only has the intensity of the attacks in Donbass not diminished, where, according to the Defense Minister, they have been gaining ground, but they are also aimed at taking away that tactical advantage from Ukraine. Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, assures that the Russian army is now beginning the counteroffensive, “push” the Ukrainian forces firmly from the Kursk region and will certainly be able to complete this task.

“The number of attacks on civilian facilities and shootings against civilians is increasing significantly every day. We can see all this, including against the background of the Ukrainian terrorist invasion of the Kursk region, from where [os militares ucranianos] “They are now being expelled and will be expelled, without any doubt,” the top Russian diplomat said, taking part in a round table of Russian ambassadors, as quoted by TASS.

Lavrov also stressed that “for more than a year there have been terrorist attacks against infrastructure and civilians in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions, as well as the periodic launching of attack drones in other border regions of Russia” and criticised the supply of offensive weapons by the West to Ukraine that make them possible.