It was a state considered, until now, solidly Republican, and in which Donald Trump would have no difficulty, from the beginning, in defeating Kamala Harris. But a new poll, published by Iowa’s largest newspaper, points to a three-point lead for the Democratic candidate over the former president. In the Selzer & Co survey for the Des Moines Registerhe The current vice president collects 47% of voting intentions, compared to Trump’s 44%..

The survey was carried out between October 28 and 31, with around 800 voters, who have already voted or guarantee that they will do so. Despite Kama Harris’ lead, the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error, which is 3.4 percentage points.

A similar survey, conducted by the same company, in September pointed to a four-point lead for Donald Trump, which shows a recovery for Kamala Harris in this state, which still elects only six major voters for the Electoral College. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by eight points against Biden and, in 2016, by ten points against Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tie in CNN and New York Times national polls

The result of the survey released this Sunday is even more surprising if we take into account that, in June the same Des Moines Register reported that Donald Trump had an 18-point lead about President Joe Biden.

Women and independents promote Kamala in Iowa

Kamala Harris’s recovery in Iowa is being driven by women, especially older women and independents (not registered in the Democratic Party or the Republican Party). Among this last group, the Democratic candidate has a lead of 28 points, which has been widening. Among independent men, Kamala is also gaining ground. In total, 46% of independents support the Democratic candidate, compared to 39% who prefer Trump, a change from the September survey. This is a decisive electorate, which in 2020 leaned towards Trump and gave him victory in the state.

Among older women, the US vice president has a 35-point lead. However, as in other states, Trump voters are more excited about the choice they will make (76% say they are very excited, compared to 71% of Harris voters).