USA and its allies
It is no exaggeration to say that Russia’s military operation in Ukraine changed the reality in the international arena in detail and brought us to a world unlike before. Here, the clear tendency of the United States to a protracted confrontation with Russia attracts attention, leading to the elimination of its military potential and the reduction of its role in a normal European country, which means loss. of any effectiveness in changing the face. of Europe, and this can be seen in Western media statements. since the operation began, as well as the West and the US -led NATO alliance, they have exhausted all their means to act against Russia and impose embargoes, condemnation and demonization against it.
Such a goal for the United States must have a similar way to achieve it, and these ways are not limited to mobilizing allies in Europe only, but beyond and aimed at mobilizing their allies, wherever they, on seven continents, and urge them to enter into battle. directly in the war against Russia, especially those hesitant under the pretext of maintaining their economic, social stability and security. Therefore, the United States must change its rules governing its international and political relations with its allies.
America and Saudi Arabia
Since Biden became U.S. president, relations between the two administrations have taken a form reminiscent of the police and the search for justice: the CIA report was a rebuke to bin Salman, and his unfavorable acceptance was a sign of dissatisfaction with his policies. Now, the demands of a confrontation with Russia are forcing the pragmatic American administration to reconsider the form of its relationship with Ibn Salman.in relation to him. Biden’s planned visit to the region is just a step in the interest of “rectifying” relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to serve their open war against Russia.
America and Israel
The United States is also pushing its first ally in the region to go to war against Russia and focus its military, intelligence and security capabilities and expertise and expertise on Ukraine. of the United States, because it is well aware that any provocation by Russia on the front in Ukraine will be met by Russia’s response, which will ease the restrictions placed on Syria and its allies, especially on their right to respond to any aggression of Israel against them. Israel has several fronts, from the northern front on the borders of Lebanon and Syria, to the southern front along the Gaza Strip, and another in the middle of the West Bank, which puts education at a real and serious existential risk. . And some argue that America actually managed to involve Israel in the war against Russia on the side of Ukrainian forces. In our reading, we are likely to be patient with the details while keeping the above as a serious and current possibility that needs to be considered.
Some intelligent historians address the fact that the Lebanese civil war in 75 was caused by the results of the 1968 election, which weakened Chehab’s strategy.
In addition to the aforementioned, the results of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, which can be relied upon to find new bases that would more easily resolve the conflict in the region, have been significantly reduced, especially since the U.S. administration realizes that Iran has reached the limit that cannot With 90% uranium enrichment, the administration no longer sees the technical benefit of a new agreement.As for political feasibility, it is also lost for the West, which understands that the ruling power in the Islamic Republic is no longer concerned with heading west and expanding relations with him, they have already started heading east towards China and Russia, even though a statement from one of Iran’s officials said that the Iran is ready to pay for any shortage of medicines in Russia.
While the feasibility of a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran is fading, a U.S.-Israeli rapprochement becomes more realistic after the U.S. position is characterized by reservations about an Israeli confrontation with Iran.
Wants the “force” of war
There is no doubt that the northern front of the Israeli entity is the most dangerous and violent area in the next potential confrontation, and if we talk about this front, we have already reached Lebanon in our reading.
At one point, the United States was not enthusiastic about Saudi Arabia and Israel’s desire to ignite civil war in Lebanon, which would affect Hezbollah and interfere with its other interests, particularly its liberation to confront Israel’s enemy. But now, given the U.S. administration’s new approach to its policy on Saudi Arabia and Israel, the idea of inciting civil war in Lebanon to strike Hezbollah seems more likely, fueled by the fact that France’s role has been abandoned. . , which often uses more “diplomatic” methods of resolving the Lebanese issue, which for various reasons we will not discuss.
Since the war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has always sought to mobilize political parties in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, which would lead to direct war on it, i.e., inciting civil war that would disperse and weaken its forces. a severe defeat like on May 7, 2008, a denial that Hariri is paying the price now as Ibn Salman removed him from political life and killed him and his political movement.
As for the one who showed unparalleled enthusiasm for the fulfillment of a long -standing wish, it was the leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Jagea, who at that time approached the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, along the details. of this civil war, then Walid Jumblatt conveyed this message to Hezbollah. by inviting one of the major journalists and delivering this message. The details will come to him along with his prior knowledge that these details will reach the leadership of Hezbollah. But what is surprising now is that those who see the enthusiasm of the Lebanese Forces led by Samir Jagea and some fringe Christian parties such as the Kataeb party (or what is left of it) will think that the “forces” were not defeated in battle or that again revived by Richard Heart Assad under the guise of Sameer Geagea! Add to this the glorious and triumphant language used by the forces after the events in Tayon, as if there had been an actual military clash with Hezbollah, which, of course, was not! However, this enthusiasm and hostile speech to Hezbollah remains evidence of the desire and intention of the Lebanese forces to enter into an internal military confrontation here. The cover given by the Maronite Patriarchate to the discourse of “force” should not be hidden from the reader, which brings us back to the civil war in 1975, when the Lebanese front devoted itself to launching a military confrontation against the Palestinian resistance. groups in Lebanon as part of the American effort to weaken the Palestinian resistance and remove it from Lebanon after being hit. The problem is that the Maronite Patriarchate neglected or was lazy to examine the results of the 75-year war, which led to the deterioration of Christian positions in the Lebanese political system through the extensive changes made by the Taif regime to the constitution of Lebanese. So in Bkirki, covering Lebanese forces, he put the Christians in a chariot driven by a daring daredevil who would inevitably commit suicide.
“Force” will be the first to win the election
Some astute historians address the fact that the Lebanese civil war in 75 was caused by the results of the 1968 elections, which weakened the Chehabist strategy, which was interested in Lebanon and its Arab positions through its alliance with Egypt. by Abdel Nasser as a powerful and effective Arab Power and gave strength to the Lebanese front to achieve the desire to fight. Palestinian factions at the time were in line with the American blueprint. Therefore, the doctrine of the Free Patriotic Movement is correct that the interest of Christians in Lebanon can only be achieved by seeking political understanding or disputes that are limited to the political sphere.
Therefore, after what we have discussed above, we have concluded that the victory of the “force” and its Christian allies with new parliamentary seats at the expense of the “current” means that the civil war has begun, and the The rest is its transition to the scene of streets, lanes and barricades – matter of time and events.
*Lebanese writer
