The Government foresees “a period of strong growth”, after the recovery of the economy in 2021, estimating that the economy will grow by 15.5% between 2019 and 2024, according to the Great Options (GO) 2022-2026, which do not reveal the macroeconomic scenario.
The next few years should be marked by significant economic growth, based on public and private investment and with the support of the Recovery and Resilience Program (PRR)”, says the Great Options (GO) 2022-2026 proposal.
The document, to which Lusa had access, begins by recalling that the economic recovery process began in 2021, the year in which the economy advanced 4.9% after sinking 7.6% in 2020 — anticipating “for the next few years” a “period of strong growth”.
According to the estimates that underlie the presented macroeconomic scenario, Portugal is expected to grow by 15.5% between 2019 and 2024″, reads the document, and the proposal to which Lusa had access does not include said macroeconomic scenario.
For the growth of 15.5% in the referred period, therefore, the 2.2% registered in 2019as well as those mentioned 4.9% in 2021 and the growth forecast of over 6% for this year—, in the press conference to present the package of support measures for families, a growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 6.4% was mentioned for this year. year.
The estimate for this year contrasts with the 4.9% indicated in the General State Budget proposal for 2022 (OE2022), which, in turn, reflects a slight downward revision (0.1 percentage points) with respect to the scenario macroeconomic presented in the Stability Program. (SP) 2022-2026.
When, at the end of March, the Minister of Finance, João Leão, presented the EP, it was estimated that in 2023 and 2024 the Portuguese economy would advance by 3.3% and 2.6%respectively.
Thus, and taking into account only the EP and OE2022 projections (even without the upward revision of GDP for this year), the Portuguese economy should grow by 17.9% between 2019 and 2024, above the 15.5% projected now on the GO
This Wednesday, the President of the Republic considered that “it was important” for the Portuguese to know the macroeconomic scenario planned by the Government so that it would be understood that there is “room for manoeuvre” in the General State Budgets for 2023.
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That same day, the President of the Government sent the statement of the Government’s macroeconomic forecasts for 2023 on the date of presentation of the General State Budgets, on October 10, a message that would be reinforced by the Minister of Finance.
Regarding the trajectory of the public debt, the GO proposal establishes that it is estimated that “a strong economic recovery and responsible fiscal consolidation will allow reducing the debt.”
By 2023, the macroeconomic scenario outlined for the coming years should allow public debt to be reduced to a level below 116% of GDP (value recorded in 2019, the year before the pandemic), and, by 2026, the end of the legislature , should reach a reduction of the debt to a level just above 100% of GDP”, reads the document, confirming the trajectory that the Government has mentioned and that it is in line with what was already foreseen in the EP.
The GOs translate into a balance of government action, being prepared by the Government within the scope of its political competence and presented to the Assembly of the Republic in the form of a bill, together with the State Budget bill, as well as the Multiannual Budget Programming Framework.
Source: Observadora
