European consumers, frightened by the war in Ukraine and record inflation rates, are likely to cease to be the main driver of recovery from the epidemic in the European region, which is hitting the economy this year, the study says. managed by Allianz.

Based on an index of deteriorating consumer confidence, economists expect private spending in the 19-country eurozone to record a loss in 2022, as well as up to 70 billion euros ($73.6 billion), equivalent to about 500 euros per household.

This estimate is based on an Allianz survey in May of more than 2,500 people in Germany, France and Italy, the region’s three largest economies, according to Bloomberg News.

Private consumption in the euro area began to contract at the end of last year and fell by 0.7% in the first quarter of this year amid strong price pressures that could intensify.

The European Central Bank recently warned that inflation could top 7% in 2022 and promised to raise interest rates by a quarter of a point next month for the first time in more than a decade, likely to be followed by more hikes in the fall.

The report indicates that responsibility lies partly with rising food and energy spending, with household bills increasing by an average of 550 euros this year, with single-family spending expected to increase by more than 750 euros. .

Although excess savings in the eurozone amount to more than 380 billion euros, they are unevenly distributed across income groups, economists write.