The Prognos study analyzes the Transformation of the German automobile industry for the next decadepredicting that Germany lose a total of 186,000 jobs between the different manufacturers that manufacture in the country, from engines to vehicles, until 2035. The study was commissioned by the German Association of the Automobile Industry (VDA) and aims to prepare companies and workers for what is coming.
The conclusions of this study are made public Simultaneously with the announcement of the closure of three factories in Germany, by the Volkswagen Group.the largest and most powerful in the country. To avoid further damage, the builder has already made it known that it intends to reduce production costs, having proposed to the unions a 10% pay cutbut the study commissioned by the VDA concludes that such will not prevent the loss of 186,000 jobs between now and 2035compared to the volume of employees in 2019.
The German automobile industry is one of the most representative economic activities in the country, employing a total of 779,662 workers in 2023, according to Statista, so the 43% cut in workforce expected for the next 10 years is far from being a minor reduction. However, the social damage can be mitigated and diluted over time through (many) early retirements and amicable dismissals.
According to the Prognos report, There are several types of jobs that are more at risk of extinction than othersas well as those in charge of the welding and chassis assembly area, since Today it is possible to carry out all these operations automatically and without human intervention.. Volkswagen also plans to reduce the number of employees linked to management and administration, but, on the other hand, Hiring should appear in areas such as information technology, electronic engineering and even mechanical engineering.
Judging by Prognos, it was very possible to reduce (or cancel) layoffs if the Volkswagen Group decided to invest in factories to produce its own batteriesinstead of purchasing them from third-party suppliers, which would also increase profits. It should be remembered that VW, BMW, Mercedes and Porsche do not manufacture the batteries they need for their vehicles, which could partly explain the lack of profitability they complain about.
Analyzing the data provided by the VDA itself, which commissioned this study at the request of the industry it represents, it is very possible that these 186,000 jobs that will disappear in 2035 are only the last diversion maneuver lobby of the German automobile industry. It is enough to remember that, in 2019, this industry employed 833,000 people, a figure that fell to 779,662 in 2023. This is a “stumble” of 53,338 jobs in just four years, which corresponds to an average of 13,334/year and which is not that much. different from the 18,600 jobs that are expected to disappear annually, on average, until 2035.
Source: Observadora
