He lost the support of the electoral base. You will not have won in any oscillation state. He may have lost the popular vote. If this whole scenario is confirmed, the failure couldn’t have been heavier for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who hoped that the “honeymoon” effect caused by Joe Biden’s withdrawal could last over time and lead her to victory in these presidential elections. But that’s not what happened in the early hours of Wednesday.

Faced with the electoral collapse, the vice president prefers to remain silent, unlike Donald Trump, who has already declared a “historic victory.” The number two of the Democratic campaign, Cedric Richmond, confirmed that the candidate will not “speak to the nation” this Wednesday morning and that she will wait a little longer. In a brief intervention from campaign headquarters, the official insisted that Democrats are waiting for “all the votes to be counted and all voices to be heard” and added that Kamala Harris would only make her statement this Wednesday.

Two political phenomena coexist in the North American presidential elections. The first one is called “red mirage”color of the Republican Party. The term is used to define the initial advantage that Republican candidates gain at the beginning of vote counting, as Republican strongholds (typically more rural) are the first to release votes. Then there is usually the “blue twist”in which states that normally vote for the Democratic Party begin to reveal results. At the same time, the votes of large urban centers, which normally do not vote Republican, are published.

Overnight, the Democratic Party campaign still seemed to hold out vague hope for this “blue turn.” However, the outlook did not seem favorable. HE North Carolinaa state that Democrats thought they could win from Republicans, remained loyal to Donald Trump. The Republicans won again Georgia and Pennsylvaniathat Joe Biden managed to win in 2020.

Because of all this, the vice president lost the elections. In the worst case scenario, which seems very likely, Republicans can really win on all counts undecided states. By 10:30 a.m. Wednesday, they had already lost Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the outlook remains bleak in Michigan, Nevada and Arizona. If she loses them too, Kamala Harris could deliver the Democrats’ worst defeat in years.

Thus, the Democratic candidate’s message that “America would not go back” did not resonate with Americans, in the same way that the flags chosen by Kamala Harris in this campaign were not enough for her followers to vote for her.

Latino and black voters will have failed Kamala Harris

Although vote recounts are still underway in several states, there are already some signs of what may have gone wrong in the Democratic campaign. There is a part of the electorate that seems not to have been convinced by Kamala Harris’ promises: the latinos. An NBC News poll only in the state of Pennsylvania shows that the Latino population voted more for Donald Trump than in 2020.

According to NBC’s exit poll, in 2020, only three out of ten Latinos voted for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. Four years later, four out of ten Latinos voted republican. The difference is not substantial, but, in a race so close in some states, this may have given the former president an advantage over his opponent.

The same survey reveals that Latino men voted more for Donald Trump, compared to 2020. About 54% of these voters chose the Republican Party on the ballot, while 44% voted for Kamala Harris. Four years ago, Joe Biden had the support of 59% of Latino male voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 36% for his opponent.

Not even among Latin women did Kamala Harris obtain an extraordinary result in Pennsylvania, although the issue of defending abortion (more attractive to the female vote) assumed great prominence in the Democratic campaign. The survey points to a distance of 25 points with respect to Donald Trump, while Joe Biden had a difference of 39 points compared to the opponent.

It wasn’t just Latinos who failed Kamala Harris. Blacks will not have shown much enthusiasm for the Democratic candidacy either.. Another NBC poll reveals that in Wisconsin, another oscillation state, Donald Trump more than doubled his votes in that electorate compared to 2020. If four years ago he only obtained 8%, in 2024 he obtained 24%.

In global terms, as the Associated Press explains from a survey of 115,000 respondents, eight out of ten black voters supported Kamala Harris, while in 2020 nine out of ten supported Joe Biden. The same trend was observed among Latinos: six out of ten supported Biden and that number decreased in 2024. In this context, there would have been a transfer of votes to Donald Trump, which will have been more substantial in the undecided states.

Latinos and blacks tend to be loyal to the Democratic Party and are a important electoral base. In this election, everything indicates that they were not attracted to Kamala Harris. Another trend that explains the Republican’s apparent advantage is due to a higher voter turnout among white voterswho traditionally vote for Donald Trump’s party. According to a Sky News poll, 71% of white voters turned out to vote, up from 67% four years ago.

There is another base of support that will have failed Kamala Harris: young people. They also usually vote for the Democratic Party. In 2024, among people under 30 years old, there was a decrease in the voting rate; It went from 17% in 2020 to 14%.

Not only did they vote less, but they also voted more for Donald Trump. The Associated Press poll indicates that around 50% voted for Kamala Harris; Four years ago, 60% chose to vote for Joe Biden. By contrast, Donald Trump won more votes in 2024 among younger voters: he won a third in 2020 and now four in ten indicate that they voted for the Republican.

The Democrats’ vote loss was especially significant in the young male vote, which was courted by the Republican Party during the campaign: About 49% voted for Kamala Harris, while 47% voted for Donald Trump. In 2020, the difference between Democrats and Republicans was more significant: 52% preferred to vote for the current president and 41% for the tycoon.

On the other hand, women voted more in these elections, which could have been an advantage for Kamala Harris, who could become the first American president. However, as Reuters explains, the white female electorate continued supporting the Republican; For example, in Pennsylvania and Georgia, support remained the same as in 2020.

The economy remains an important issue and Kamala Harris has failed to convince voters

Kamala Harris gave great prominence, in this campaign, to the issue of reproductive rights and the issue of democracy, highlighting that Donald Trump’s return to the White House would be a danger to democratic institutions. The campaign’s approach will not have worked at all and there was one issue on which the Democrat failed to convince voters: in economy.

Discontent over the rising cost of living must have been a reason that led Kamala Harris to lose votes. An ABC News poll reveals that 45% of Americans feel they have lost purchasing power in four years. This figure is even higher than that recorded in 2008, when there was a recession and a deep economic crisis.

Although the state of democracy was the most important reason for voters to decide how to vote, it was in the economy where the greatest resentment was found. Vast majority of respondents (67%) He noted that the economic situation was in a worse state than in 2020.

Despite the good start she had after the withdrawal of the current American president, Kamala Harris could not maintain it and ended up, apparently, defeated in these elections, and the Democrats lost again to Donald Trump. And it is still unclear how they will react to another Trump administration and with Republicans once again controlling the Senate.

Republicans regain the Senate and try to retain the majority in the House of Representatives

Special updated at 10:50 with indication of Democratic defeat also in Wisconsin