Bloomberg reported that Iran has about 93 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate in ships ready for export if sanctions are lifted.
These abundant reserves of crude oil come at a time when the price of oil in international markets remains high since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Progress toward the Iran nuclear deal has highlighted the large reserves of crude oil at Tehran’s disposal that could be quickly shipped to buyers if a deal is reached.
According to the ship tracking company Kepler, “Iranian oil tankers are in the Persian Gulf, near Singapore and near China.”
John Driscoll, chief strategist of JTD Energy Services, says: “Iran has built a huge fleet of goods that can enter the market soon.
Still, it could take “some time” to sort out the insurance and shipping issues, as well as spot-to-spot sales after the sanctions, Driscoll said.
Iran’s potential full re-entry into the global crude oil market, with the possible lifting of US sanctions, comes at a complicated moment for oil traders.
Investors are playing the countdown to tougher EU restrictions on Russian oil flows from December as part of Russia’s isolation following its invasion of Ukraine.
Additionally, the Biden administration’s massive sale of strategic oil reserves ends in November.
The possible return of Iranian barrels to global oil markets – both from floating and long-term storage volumes – has weighed on futures prices in recent weeks.
The 2015 agreement between Iran and major powers (the United States, France, Britain, Russia, China, and Germany) made it possible to lift international sanctions against Tehran in exchange for reducing its nuclear activities and guaranteeing that Iran is peaceful. The program and non-development of nuclear weapons, which has repeatedly rejected attempts to achieve it.
However, its effects have been reversed since former US President Donald Trump decided to unilaterally withdraw his country in 2018 and reimpose tough sanctions against Tehran.
From the following year, it forced Iran to withdraw from key commitments in the agreement and accelerate its nuclear program, especially in the field of uranium enrichment.
But Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump in the US presidency, expressed his determination to return his country to the JCPOA on the condition that Iran returns to its obligations.
According to the estimate of the International Energy Agency, Iran’s crude oil reserves abroad are compared to the average daily world supply this year of about 100 million barrels per day.
In the United States, President Joe Biden released about 180 million barrels of strategic reserves in six months.
After the conclusion of any agreement, Iran will seek to restore production and rapidly increase foreign sales.
However, Goldman Sachs said it was “unlikely to reach a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers any time soon”, noting that “if the deal is approved, additional oil flows to the markets would not begin before 2023.” “
“While Iran may be looking to fill the Russian void in Europe, particularly in Spain, Italy, Greece and even Turkey, Tehran will also try to gain its valuable share of the Asian market,” Driscoll said. If the conditions need improvement.”
Kepler data shows that in 2017 and 2018, Europe consumed 748,000 barrels and 528,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, respectively, when Tehran was present in international markets before Trump reinstated sanctions against it, while Asia consumed 1.2 Iran consumed nearly one million barrels of oil. barrels per day .
Driscoll added: “Iran naturally wants to supply Europe first to fill the void caused by the sanctions after the attack on Russia. “
Source: Lebanon Debate
