It was a “precise attack”, measured and without impacting the Iranian nuclear facilities. In constant contact with the United States of America (USA), Israel retaliated against the shooting of rockets and Iranian missiles on October 1. Iran has promised to respondbut it won’t be giving great importance to Israelite revenge. “Israel is trying to inflate its stroke weak“A source from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard told the Tasmin agency.

Enemies since 1979, date of the Iranian revolution, this attack opens a new phase of the conflict between Iran and Israel: this is the first time that Tel Aviv launches a direct air attack that reaches the territory of its geopolitical rival. “This is the beginning of a new phase, a dangerous phase,” Yoel Guzansky, an analyst at panel of experts Israeli Institute for National Security Studies. However, the expert points out that “the music heard in Iran basically indicates that this was nothing.” According to The Guardian, this Saturday’s Israeli attack is even being ridiculed by the Iranians.

“It is possible that both sides will end this round [de ataques] and that we do not see Iranian retaliation, or if there is, it will be limited,” Yoel Guzansky further surmises. Therefore, it seems that Israel did everything possible not to anger its rival and give it the feeling like you were on top. As Axios newspaper reports, through intermediaries, Tel Aviv even warned Tehran before the attacks.which initially targeted air defense systems and, in a second and third round, the places where Iran manufactures and develops drones and weapons.

What is known about the Israeli attack on Iran in the early hours of Saturday

One of these intermediaries was the Netherlands. Hours before the “late” attack – as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) acknowledged – the Dutch Foreign Minister wrote on his personal X account (formerly Twitter) that he spoke with his Iranian counterpart “about the war and tensions in the region.” “I asked for restrictions. All parties must work together to avoid an escalation,” highlighted Caspar Veldkamp, ​​in a publication at 5:16 p.m.

I spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister about the war and rising tensions in the region. Regarding the latter, I urged moderation. All parties must work to prevent further escalation.

— Caspar Veldkamp (@ministerBZ) October 25, 2024

Iran says it has the “right” to respond. But retaliation could increase tension

Israel settles scores with Iran and will close your retaliation. At the same time, although it devalues ​​the “weak attack” that caused two fatalities, the Iranian regime has already stressed, in a statement, that it “has the right” to react and “has the obligation” to defend itself: “Iran emphasizes that it will use all the capabilities of the Iranian people to safeguard their security and fundamental interests.” “There is no doubt” that Tehran will respond in an “appropriate, tough, proportional and well-calculated manner,” an Iranian source also highlighted to the Tasmin agency.

But Iran also expressed, in the statement issued this Saturday, that it reaffirms “its responsibilities in relation to peace and security in the region.” That is, Tehran promises that it will respond to Tel Aviv’s attacks, but leaves it up in the air. that will be limited and that it will never lead to a regional conflict. As Sky News writes, this could be an “opportunity for a ‘de-escalation’ in this missile war that could tip the region into a full-blown military conflict.”

The responsibility is now in the hands of Iran. Israel has responded to the “Iranian regime and its representatives” who have “attacked” the country “relentlessly”: “Like any other sovereign country in the world, the Israeli State has the right and duty to respond,” said the spokesman for the IDF, Daniel Hagari, in a video, adding, hours later, that “military objectives” were attacked and that the “The mission had been successfully completed.”

I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks on Israel. pic.twitter.com/ZFgCryUFdu

— דובר צה״ל דניאל הגרי – Daniel Hagari (@IDFSpokesperson) October 26, 2024

However, Daniel Hagari left a warning to the Iranian authorities in case of Iranian retaliation: “If the Iranian regime makes the mistake of starting a new round of escalation, We will be obliged to respond. Those who threaten the State of Israel and seek regional escalation will pay a price high price”. And the IDF spokesperson threatened that Tel Aviv has the “ability and will” to “act decisively”: “We are prepared in offensive and defensive terms.”

Tel Aviv’s allies have also endorsed the same message as Israel: Iran must avoid escalation. Through National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett, the United States calls for an “end to this cycle” of attacks without “escalation.” “The response was a self-defense exercise and specifically avoided populated areas and focused solely on military objectives,” the US official argued, highlighting that Washington “intends to accelerate diplomacy and reduce tensions in the Middle East.”

Along the same lines, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, defended that Israel had the “right to defend itself from Iranian aggression” and called on Iran to “don’t retaliate“, asking for “moderation” from all parties in the conflict. “We will continue to work with allies to de-escalate the situation throughout the region,” he said.

An ill-timed retaliation by Iran could lead to a response from Israel – but this time more serious and with implications for the entire Middle East. After a “historic” night, Danny Citrinowicz, member of panel of experts and expert at the Atlantic Council, emphasizes that the world is “Closer than ever to a war between Israel and Iran that could provoke a regional war.”

Danny Citrinowicz notes that the “barrier of fear” that Israelis felt when attacking Iran collapsed this morning. Deterrence may be over, even if, according to public statements by Israeli leaders, there is no intention of escalation. However, the expert continues, the “intensity and lethality of the Iranian response” to this Saturday’s offensive in Tel Aviv “will clarify whether the barrier The idea of ​​Tehran starting an all-out war was also not broken.” or whether “Iran will respond in a way that executes yours retaliation but without leading to a major conflict.”

There are several ways Iran can carry out its retaliation without starting a war. For example, Robert Clark, a military analyst at the Yorktown Institute, tells Sky News that Tehran’s response could come through its militias around Israel. “I think there will almost certainly be an Iranian response, but perhaps through their “proxies” – like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen. the same specialist consider a very unlikely scenario in which the Iranian authorities send “ballistic and cruise missiles” to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, as happened on October 1.

Biden controls the damage of a major Israeli attack and a new war before the election

Israel maintained suspense for weeks and was slow to react against Iran. During this time, there was one certainty: the attack would be. before November 5date of the North American presidential elections. The United States remains Tel Aviv’s greatest ally and the victory of candidate Donald Trump should mean a turning in the management of United States foreign policy, and the relationship between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Republicanism was never exactly easy, despite the former President’s defense of the Israeli cause.

At the same time, the current president, Joe Biden, wanted to avoid a total war scenario in the Middle East, which could damage the campaign of his vice president, Democrat Kamala Harris. The White House was, therefore, in permanent contact with the Israeli executive, although it stressed that it did not participate in the attack this Saturday morning.

According to an American leader told CNN International, Joe Biden “encouraged” Benjamin Netanyahu to “design” a retaliation that would “prevent future attacks against Israel.” Furthermore, after the Iranian attack on October 1, the White House gave the green light to send sophisticated THAAD air defense system for Israelin order to safeguard Israeli skies and serve as an important deterrent to Tehran.

In the opinion of Ellie Geranmayeh, an expert on Iranian politics at panel of experts European Council on Foreign Relations, there will be a “sense of relief in Iran” and in the Middle East, since the United States has managed to “moderate Benjamin Netanyahu” so that he does not take a crueler revenge against Iran “but the fear is that this moderation will do it.” It will be temporary and will remain until the US elections,” the same analyst warns the New York Times.

Despite all the Iranian threats of retaliation, the situation is now less tense in the Middle East. Israel got its revenge, which did not have much impact on the Iranian regime. But a miscalculation in the Iranian response could lead Israel to react more forcefully, especially if it occurs after North American elections.